CHIBears
4-4
6
TBD
Candlestick Park
60°F
18 mph
10
SF49ers
3-5
TBD
Candlestick Park
60°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
3
0
6
49ers
0
7
0
3
10
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
216
Total Plays
73
53
Yards / Play
4.8
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.27
Passing Yards
--
106
Comp/Att
29/52(56%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.36
-0.20
Rushing Yards
43
110
Rush Attempts
21
28
Yards / Rush
2.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
12
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
47%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
5
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-23.44
-2.35
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-2.81
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
75
77
Penalty EPA
-4.74
-7.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+35
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-66.3
Home QB Adjustment
-53.2
Away QB Adjustment
+13.1
Market Regression
+46.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-53.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
4
Yards / Game
23
15
Passing Yards / Game
11
9
Rushing Yards / Game
29
6
EPA
EPA / Play
24
2
EPA / Pass
23
5
EPA / Rush
21
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
12
Interceptions / Game
30
10
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
10
4th Down Efficiency
25
4
RZ Efficiency
25
2
49ers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
21
Yards / Game
27
17
Passing Yards / Game
18
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
24
EPA
EPA / Play
23
18
EPA / Pass
21
20
EPA / Rush
20
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
14
Interceptions / Game
10
22
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
31
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
6
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-4-2
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-4-2
O/U