CHIBears
10-4
14
TBD
Levi's Stadium
50°F
5 mph
9
SF49ers
4-10
TBD
Levi's Stadium
50°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
7
0
14
49ers
0
9
0
0
9
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
279
Total Plays
60
54
Yards / Play
5.4
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.14
Passing Yards
235
232
Comp/Att
25/29(86%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.06
Rushing Yards
90
47
Rush Attempts
28
15
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
45%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-7.37
-4.62
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-11
-9
Sack EPA
-3.16
-1.81
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
30
45
Penalty EPA
-2.61
-4.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model69.5%
Spread Pick
Bears-3.5
Expected Value
+6.9%
Cover Probability
56.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-184
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+57.6
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-94.6
Home QB Adjustment
-66.5
Away QB Adjustment
+28.0
Market Regression
+8.0
Final Difference
-142.6
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+28.0
N. Mullens
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-66.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
28
Yards / Game
21
13
Passing Yards / Game
13
20
Rushing Yards / Game
14
13
EPA
EPA / Play
17
26
EPA / Pass
12
28
EPA / Rush
17
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
9
Interceptions / Game
20
32
Fumbles / Game
20
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
12
26
49ers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
1
Yards / Game
14
3
Passing Yards / Game
16
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
1
EPA
EPA / Play
21
1
EPA / Pass
20
3
EPA / Rush
28
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
25
17
Turnover EPA / Game
1
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
4
4th Down Efficiency
19
17
RZ Efficiency
32
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U