CHIBears
3-2
10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
61°F
7 mph
45
CINBengals
4-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
61°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
0
7
10
Bengals
14
17
7
7
45
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
279
448
Total Plays
52
69
Yards / Play
5.4
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.40
Passing Yards
244
--
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
20/24(83%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+1.21
Rushing Yards
35
215
Rush Attempts
12
45
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
30
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
50%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
50%
86%
Red Zone Conversions
1
6
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.92
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-1.59
--
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
44
20
Penalty EPA
-8.30
-3.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.1
Home QB Adjustment
+5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+24.0
Market Regression
-48.1
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.0
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
5
Yards / Game
23
5
Passing Yards / Game
11
12
Rushing Yards / Game
29
8
EPA
EPA / Play
24
7
EPA / Pass
23
10
EPA / Rush
21
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
22
Interceptions / Game
30
11
Fumbles / Game
4
32
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
25
9
Bengals Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
21
Yards / Game
24
17
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
7
24
EPA
EPA / Play
19
18
EPA / Pass
16
20
EPA / Rush
12
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
14
Interceptions / Game
8
22
Fumbles / Game
21
3
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
27
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
21
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-3-5
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-3-4
O/U