nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ bengals week 7, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CHI logo
CHIBears
3-2
10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
61°F
7 mph
45
CINBengals
4-2
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
61°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
0
7
10
Bengals
14
17
7
7
45

Spread

CIN logo
+2

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
279
448
Total Plays
52
69
Yards / Play
5.4
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.40
Passing Yards
244
--
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
20/24(83%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+1.21
Rushing Yards
35
215
Rush Attempts
12
45
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
15
30
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
50%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
50%
86%
Red Zone Conversions
1
6
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.92
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-1.59
--
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
44
20
Penalty EPA
-8.30
-3.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-6
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.1
Home QB Adjustment
+5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+24.0
Market Regression
-48.1
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.0
Value
Ptile
11/30
5.8
87
12/07
7.0
90
12/14
-2.7
29
12/21
6.1
88
12/28
2.2
67
09/13
-6.5
13
09/20
5.4
84
09/27
4.3
78
10/04
1.2
57
10/18
3.0
69
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
Value
Ptile
09/07
-7.9
6
09/14
-5.3
13
09/21
1.9
65
10/05
0.1
53
09/13
-4.9
21
09/20
1.9
63
09/27
-0.8
45
10/04
-0.3
47
10/11
1.9
63
10/18
1.2
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Bengals Defense
Bears logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
19
5
Yards / Game
23
5
Passing Yards / Game
11
12
Rushing Yards / Game
29
8

EPA

EPA / Play
24
7
EPA / Pass
23
10
EPA / Rush
21
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
22
Interceptions / Game
30
11
Fumbles / Game
4
32
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
25
9
Bengals Offense vs Bears Defense
Bengals logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
22
21
Yards / Game
24
17
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
7
24

EPA

EPA / Play
19
18
EPA / Pass
16
20
EPA / Rush
12
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
14
Interceptions / Game
8
22
Fumbles / Game
21
3
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
27
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
21
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-3-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
-20
L
L
P
12/07
13
W
W
P
12/11
3
W
P
P
12/22
3
W
L
P
12/28
-7
L
L
P
09/13
-6
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
U
09/27
6
W
W
O
10/04
24
W
W
O
10/18
-7
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-3-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
-32
L
L
P
12/14
7
W
W
P
12/21
14
W
W
P
12/28
10
W
W
P
09/13
-5
L
L
U
09/20
7
W
W
O
09/27
3
W
W
O
10/04
3
W
L
O
10/11
3
W
W
U
10/18
-11
L
L
U