CHIBears
3-9
33
TBD
Paycor Stadium
31°F
11 mph
7
CINBengals
5-7
TBD
Paycor Stadium
31°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
6
6
7
14
33
Bengals
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
482
234
Total Plays
72
53
Yards / Play
6.7
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.32
Passing Yards
250
164
Comp/Att
25/32(78%)
18/37(49%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.42
-0.47
Rushing Yards
232
70
Rush Attempts
38
13
Yards / Rush
6.1
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
14
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
13
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
36%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.23
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-21
-24
Sack EPA
-2.68
-3.95
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
74
56
Penalty EPA
-8.61
-4.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+178
Home nfelo
1,487
Away nfelo
1,395
Home Field
+84.8
Base HFA
+55.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
+9.9
Net QB Adjustment
+1.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.9
Away QB Adjustment
+1.1
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
17
Yards / Game
30
18
Passing Yards / Game
24
8
Rushing Yards / Game
16
30
EPA
EPA / Play
27
14
EPA / Pass
28
10
EPA / Rush
17
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
13
Interceptions / Game
13
18
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
15
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
24
4th Down Efficiency
23
16
RZ Efficiency
5
5
Bengals Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
8
Yards / Game
32
7
Passing Yards / Game
18
21
Rushing Yards / Game
31
10
EPA
EPA / Play
26
11
EPA / Pass
21
13
EPA / Rush
28
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
16
Interceptions / Game
13
29
Fumbles / Game
21
1
Turnover EPA / Game
12
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
20
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
11
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U