CHIBears
4-3
22
TBD
Rogers Centre
70°F
019
BUFBills
0-7
TBD
Rogers Centre
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
7
8
22
Bills
0
7
6
6
19
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
285
340
Total Plays
63
71
Yards / Play
4.5
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.06
Passing Yards
180
294
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
31/51(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.05
Rushing Yards
105
46
Rush Attempts
31
19
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
58%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
7
10
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.83
-11.97
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-10
-5
Sack EPA
-5.83
-1.00
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
45
33
Penalty EPA
-5.08
-4.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model58.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-12
Home nfelo
1,404
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+46.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+23.5
Home QB Adjustment
+18.7
Away QB Adjustment
-4.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-56.7
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
28
Yards / Game
29
24
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
19
32
EPA
EPA / Play
26
27
EPA / Pass
29
28
EPA / Rush
12
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
30
28
Fumbles / Game
8
14
Turnover EPA / Game
7
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
31
4th Down Efficiency
28
29
RZ Efficiency
23
27
Bills Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
9
3
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2
EPA
EPA / Play
29
1
EPA / Pass
28
5
EPA / Rush
23
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
1
Interceptions / Game
27
5
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
3
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
2
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
21
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U