CHIBears
4-3
41
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
12 mph
9
BUFBills
2-6
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
16
3
10
29
Bills
0
0
3
6
9
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
190
264
Total Plays
46
82
Yards / Play
4.1
3.2
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.48
Passing Yards
126
166
Comp/Att
12/20(60%)
31/50(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
3.3
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.49
Rushing Yards
64
98
Rush Attempts
25
28
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
22
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
7
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.24
-15.40
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-9
-22
Sack EPA
-3.27
-1.99
Penalties
14
10
Penalty Yards
129
163
Penalty EPA
-14.09
-12.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
Bills+10.0
Expected Value
+6.6%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-192
Home nfelo
1,298
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+88.5
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-68.6
Home QB Adjustment
-35.8
Away QB Adjustment
+32.8
Market Regression
-8.9
Final Difference
-222.7
Model Spread
+9.0
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+32.8
N. Peterman
Proj. Value
-6.1
Team Elo Adj
-35.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
19
Yards / Game
21
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
1
Rushing Yards / Game
14
15
EPA
EPA / Play
17
4
EPA / Pass
12
2
EPA / Rush
17
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
14
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
20
2
Turnover EPA / Game
13
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
13
RZ Efficiency
12
30
Bills Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
32
12
Rushing Yards / Game
8
1
EPA
EPA / Play
31
1
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
20
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
24
Interceptions / Game
31
1
Fumbles / Game
11
17
Turnover EPA / Game
6
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
31
17
RZ Efficiency
16
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U