CHIBears
7-6
38
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
25°F
12 mph
31
CLEBrowns
4-9
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
25°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
10
1
21
32
Browns
3
1
8
7
19
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
440
366
Total Plays
64
56
Yards / Play
6.9
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.09
Passing Yards
261
--
Comp/Att
22/31(71%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.13
Rushing Yards
179
93
Rush Attempts
31
17
Yards / Rush
5.8
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
20
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
64%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-20.10
-11.24
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-4
--
Sack EPA
-1.95
--
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
40
90
Penalty EPA
-6.18
-10.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model47.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,422
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+61.1
Home QB Adjustment
+32.6
Away QB Adjustment
-28.4
Market Regression
-0.2
Final Difference
19.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-28.4
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+32.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
23
Yards / Game
7
9
Passing Yards / Game
7
9
Rushing Yards / Game
15
18
EPA
EPA / Play
7
17
EPA / Pass
6
12
EPA / Rush
8
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
3
Interceptions / Game
12
19
Fumbles / Game
17
24
Turnover EPA / Game
11
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
31
4th Down Efficiency
8
16
RZ Efficiency
7
31
Browns Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
30
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
8
13
Rushing Yards / Game
28
32
EPA
EPA / Play
25
31
EPA / Pass
25
16
EPA / Rush
14
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
30
Interceptions / Game
24
7
Fumbles / Game
9
20
Turnover EPA / Game
14
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
25
4th Down Efficiency
17
30
RZ Efficiency
22
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U