CHIBears
3-3
24
TBD
Wembley Stadium
62°F
15 mph
18
TBBuccaneers
4-2
TBD
Wembley Stadium
62°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
7
7
3
24
Buccaneers
0
3
0
13
16
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
395
280
Total Plays
67
65
Yards / Play
5.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.10
Passing Yards
218
250
Comp/Att
17/32(53%)
29/53(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.21
Rushing Yards
177
30
Rush Attempts
33
11
Yards / Rush
5.4
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
31%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.36
-14.04
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-14
Sack EPA
+0.03
-2.40
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
54
69
Penalty EPA
-3.43
-11.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-25
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+11.2
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.5
Home QB Adjustment
+6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.9
Market Regression
-24.8
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
32
Yards / Game
25
30
Passing Yards / Game
30
5
Rushing Yards / Game
9
32
EPA
EPA / Play
24
32
EPA / Pass
30
30
EPA / Rush
19
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
25
20
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
20
4th Down Efficiency
30
31
RZ Efficiency
12
25
Buccaneers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
14
Yards / Game
21
17
Passing Yards / Game
14
22
Rushing Yards / Game
31
5
EPA
EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
24
9
EPA / Rush
29
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
5
Interceptions / Game
29
5
Fumbles / Game
29
18
Turnover EPA / Game
1
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
18
14
RZ Efficiency
17
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U