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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ cardinals week 3, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CHI logo
CHIBears
1-1
16
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
14
ARICardinals
0-2
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
10
3
16
Cardinals
14
0
0
0
14

Spread

ARI logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
39

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
316
221
Total Plays
69
48
Yards / Play
4.6
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.27
Passing Yards
194
168
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.18
Rushing Yards
122
53
Rush Attempts
31
18
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
36%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.48
-11.49
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-26
-25
Sack EPA
-9.03
-7.42
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
45
43
Penalty EPA
-3.62
-5.31

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model62.4%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.1%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-37
Home nfelo
1,373
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+67.6
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+4.2
Home QB Adjustment
+3.9
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
-2.3
Final Difference
-88.2
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Value
Ptile
11/12
-3.2
30
11/19
1.9
66
11/26
-8.2
7
12/03
-2.5
36
12/10
5.9
87
12/16
-3.2
29
12/24
-3.0
32
12/31
-1.8
39
09/09
-2.0
33
09/17
0.2
48
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
Value
Ptile
11/24
1.0
56
12/01
1.0
56
12/11
5.5
85
12/18
-2.3
32
12/24
6.2
87
01/01
7.0
90
09/11
8.9
96
10/09
-10.7
2
09/09
-5.3
16
09/16
-5.8
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Bears logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
10
26
Yards / Game
21
21
Passing Yards / Game
13
14
Rushing Yards / Game
14
32

EPA

EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
12
12
EPA / Rush
17
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
20
15
Turnover EPA / Game
13
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
16
4th Down Efficiency
10
24
RZ Efficiency
12
22
Cardinals Offense vs Bears Defense
Cardinals logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
32
1
Yards / Game
32
3
Passing Yards / Game
28
12
Rushing Yards / Game
32
1

EPA

EPA / Play
32
1
EPA / Pass
32
3
EPA / Rush
30
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
24
Interceptions / Game
28
1
Fumbles / Game
22
17
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
4
4th Down Efficiency
32
17
RZ Efficiency
8
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
-7
L
L
O
11/19
-3
L
P
O
11/26
-28
L
L
U
12/03
-1
L
L
U
12/10
26
W
W
U
12/16
-10
L
L
U
12/24
17
W
W
U
12/31
-13
L
W
U
09/09
-1
L
W
O
09/17
7
W
W
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
-6
L
P
U
11/19
-10
L
L
O
11/26
3
W
W
O
12/03
-16
L
L
O
12/10
5
W
W
U
12/17
-5
L
L
U
12/24
23
W
W
U
12/31
2
W
W
O
09/09
-18
L
L
U
09/16
-34
L
L
U