CHIBears
1-1
16
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
014
ARICardinals
0-2
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
10
3
16
Cardinals
14
0
0
0
14
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
316
221
Total Plays
69
48
Yards / Play
4.6
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.27
Passing Yards
194
168
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.18
Rushing Yards
122
53
Rush Attempts
31
18
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
36%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.48
-11.49
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-26
-25
Sack EPA
-9.03
-7.42
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
45
43
Penalty EPA
-3.62
-5.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model62.4%
Spread Pick
Cardinals+4.5
Expected Value
+3.1%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-36
Home nfelo
1,375
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+66.8
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+4.2
Home QB Adjustment
+3.9
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
-2.5
Final Difference
-87.8
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
26
Yards / Game
21
21
Passing Yards / Game
13
14
Rushing Yards / Game
14
32
EPA
EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
12
12
EPA / Rush
17
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
20
15
Turnover EPA / Game
13
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
16
4th Down Efficiency
10
24
RZ Efficiency
12
22
Cardinals Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
1
Yards / Game
32
3
Passing Yards / Game
28
12
Rushing Yards / Game
32
1
EPA
EPA / Play
32
1
EPA / Pass
32
3
EPA / Rush
30
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
24
Interceptions / Game
28
1
Fumbles / Game
22
17
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
4
4th Down Efficiency
32
17
RZ Efficiency
8
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U