CHIBears
2-5
22
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
63°F
9 mph
19
LACChargers
2-6
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
63°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
0
15
22
Chargers
7
3
0
3
13
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
448
339
Total Plays
71
63
Yards / Play
6.3
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.10
Passing Yards
337
262
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.03
Rushing Yards
111
77
Rush Attempts
30
19
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
20
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
60%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
9
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.58
-3.53
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-18
Sack EPA
-4.66
-2.14
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
55
54
Penalty EPA
-6.06
-3.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model68.3%
Spread Pick
Chargers-3.5
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,401
Home Field
+83.9
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.1
Net QB Adjustment
+14.6
Home QB Adjustment
+29.6
Away QB Adjustment
+15.1
Market Regression
-4.5
Final Difference
133.3
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+29.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
21
Yards / Game
19
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
17
Rushing Yards / Game
11
27
EPA
EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
17
19
EPA / Rush
10
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
13
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
18
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
13
4th Down Efficiency
5
32
RZ Efficiency
27
7
Chargers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
20
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
1
10
Rushing Yards / Game
30
22
EPA
EPA / Play
18
28
EPA / Pass
11
22
EPA / Rush
31
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
21
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
29
4th Down Efficiency
29
9
RZ Efficiency
7
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chargers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U