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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ chargers week 9, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CHI logo
CHIBears
2-5
22
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
63°F
9 mph
19
LACChargers
2-6
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
63°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
0
15
22
Chargers
7
3
0
3
13

Spread

CHI logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
49

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
448
339
Total Plays
71
63
Yards / Play
6.3
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.10
Passing Yards
337
262
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.03
Rushing Yards
111
77
Rush Attempts
30
19
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
20
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
60%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
9
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.58
-3.53
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-18
Sack EPA
-4.66
-2.14
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
55
54
Penalty EPA
-6.06
-3.04

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model68.2%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+172
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+84.5
Base HFA
+62.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.3
Net QB Adjustment
+14.6
Home QB Adjustment
+29.6
Away QB Adjustment
+15.1
Market Regression
-4.5
Final Difference
132.5
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
Value
Ptile
11/27
-1.5
39
12/04
7.9
91
12/15
-11.2
2
12/28
-0.8
45
09/13
-1.9
36
09/20
-0.9
45
10/04
-0.6
47
10/11
1.4
61
10/18
2.6
69
11/01
3.7
77
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
+29.6
Value
Ptile
12/20
3.0
71
12/28
-9.1
6
09/13
6.0
87
09/20
-0.1
50
09/27
-4.3
19
10/04
5.8
86
10/12
5.2
83
10/18
10.6
97
10/25
3.6
76
11/01
7.1
91

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Chargers Defense
Bears logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
21
Yards / Game
19
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
17
Rushing Yards / Game
11
27

EPA

EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
17
19
EPA / Rush
10
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
13
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
18
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
13
4th Down Efficiency
5
32
RZ Efficiency
27
7
Chargers Offense vs Bears Defense
Chargers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
25
20
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
1
10
Rushing Yards / Game
30
22

EPA

EPA / Play
18
28
EPA / Pass
11
22
EPA / Rush
31
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
21
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
29
4th Down Efficiency
29
9
RZ Efficiency
7
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-16
L
L
U
12/21
-6
L
W
U
12/28
-4
L
W
U
09/13
-8
L
L
O
09/20
-25
L
L
O
09/27
-26
L
L
U
10/04
2
W
W
U
10/11
1
W
W
U
10/18
-3
L
W
O
11/01
-3
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
3
W
W
O
12/28
-12
L
L
U
09/13
5
W
W
O
09/20
-5
L
L
U
09/27
-17
L
L
U
10/04
3
W
L
O
10/12
-4
L
L
U
10/18
-7
L
W
U
10/25
-8
L
L
O
11/01
-3
L
W
O