CHIBears
0-2
10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
041
KCChiefs
1-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
0
10
10
Chiefs
7
27
7
0
41
Spread
-12.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
203
456
Total Plays
51
75
Yards / Play
4.0
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.35
+0.21
Passing Yards
87
--
Comp/Att
11/22(50%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.79
+0.37
Rushing Yards
116
153
Rush Attempts
26
37
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
31
Passing 1st downs
5
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
33%
71%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.37
-11.18
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-5.78
--
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
32
--
Penalty EPA
-4.48
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+286
Home nfelo
1,612
Away nfelo
1,377
Home Field
+43.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.1
Home QB Adjustment
+3.0
Away QB Adjustment
-6.1
Market Regression
+18.8
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+3.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
2
Yards / Game
21
5
Passing Yards / Game
23
11
Rushing Yards / Game
2
17
EPA
EPA / Play
23
7
EPA / Pass
25
4
EPA / Rush
3
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
10
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
19
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Chiefs Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
19
Yards / Game
8
12
Passing Yards / Game
11
9
Rushing Yards / Game
17
1
EPA
EPA / Play
10
8
EPA / Pass
13
18
EPA / Rush
16
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
7
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
21
26
Turnover EPA / Game
12
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
29
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
20
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
0-10
SU
1-8-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U