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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ chiefs week 3, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
0-2
10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0
41
KCChiefs
1-1
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
0
10
10
Chiefs
7
27
7
0
41

Spread

KC logo
-12.5

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
203
456
Total Plays
51
75
Yards / Play
4.0
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.35
+0.21
Passing Yards
87
--
Comp/Att
11/22(50%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.79
+0.37
Rushing Yards
116
153
Rush Attempts
26
37
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
11
31
Passing 1st downs
5
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
33%
71%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.37
-11.18
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-5.78
--
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
32
--
Penalty EPA
-4.48
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+285
Home nfelo
1,610
Away nfelo
1,378
Home Field
+43.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.2
Home QB Adjustment
+3.1
Away QB Adjustment
-6.0
Market Regression
+18.8
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
Value
Ptile
10/30
5.6
87
11/06
12.8
99
11/13
8.1
93
11/20
-2.0
38
12/04
6.4
90
12/18
2.2
70
12/24
-2.3
34
01/01
-8.3
5
09/10
-0.6
45
09/17
-8.8
5
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
12/11
1.8
66
12/18
13.7
100
12/24
3.8
80
01/01
8.1
93
01/07
-0.2
51
01/21
3.3
77
01/29
4.7
84
02/12
10.3
97
09/07
1.2
57
09/17
4.8
80

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Bears logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
19
2
Yards / Game
21
5
Passing Yards / Game
23
11
Rushing Yards / Game
2
17

EPA

EPA / Play
23
7
EPA / Pass
25
4
EPA / Rush
3
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
10
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
19
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Chiefs Offense vs Bears Defense
Chiefs logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
14
19
Yards / Game
8
12
Passing Yards / Game
11
9
Rushing Yards / Game
17
1

EPA

EPA / Play
10
8
EPA / Pass
13
18
EPA / Rush
16
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
7
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
21
26
Turnover EPA / Game
12
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
29
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
20
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

0-10
SU
1-8-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-1
L
L
O
11/20
-3
L
P
O
11/27
-21
L
L
O
12/04
-9
L
L
O
12/18
-5
L
W
U
12/24
-22
L
L
O
01/01
-31
L
L
U
01/08
-16
L
L
U
09/10
-18
L
L
O
09/17
-10
L
L
O
KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
6
W
L
O
12/18
6
W
L
O
12/24
14
W
W
U
01/01
3
W
L
O
01/07
18
W
W
U
01/21
7
W
L
U
01/29
3
W
W
U
02/12
3
W
W
O
09/07
-1
L
L
U
09/17
8
W
W
U