CHIBears
1-3
18
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
72°F
10 mph
17
KCChiefs
1-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
72°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
0
3
12
18
Chiefs
1
10
0
0
11
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
287
Total Plays
75
58
Yards / Play
4.4
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.10
Passing Yards
241
170
Comp/Att
26/47(55%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.14
Rushing Yards
87
117
Rush Attempts
26
25
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
43%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.68
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-11
Sack EPA
-7.38
-4.13
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
49
--
Penalty EPA
-5.11
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+209
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,391
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
1
Yards / Game
19
6
Passing Yards / Game
11
7
Rushing Yards / Game
11
6
EPA
EPA / Play
14
5
EPA / Pass
17
3
EPA / Rush
10
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
8
Interceptions / Game
11
2
Fumbles / Game
21
23
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
5
4th Down Efficiency
5
15
RZ Efficiency
27
22
Chiefs Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
20
Yards / Game
25
14
Passing Yards / Game
19
10
Rushing Yards / Game
6
22
EPA
EPA / Play
5
28
EPA / Pass
15
22
EPA / Rush
1
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
20
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
7
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
29
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
12
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U