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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ chiefs week 5, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CHI logo
CHIBears
1-3
18
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
72°F
10 mph
17
KCChiefs
1-3
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
72°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
0
3
12
18
Chiefs
1
10
0
0
11

Spread

CHI logo
+9.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
328
287
Total Plays
75
58
Yards / Play
4.4
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.10
Passing Yards
241
170
Comp/Att
26/47(55%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.14
Rushing Yards
87
117
Rush Attempts
26
25
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
43%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.68
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-11
Sack EPA
-7.38
-4.13
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
49
--
Penalty EPA
-5.11
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+207
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,393
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Value
Ptile
11/09
-4.7
22
11/16
7.2
89
11/23
-4.6
22
11/27
-1.5
39
12/04
7.9
91
12/15
-11.2
2
12/28
-0.8
45
09/13
-1.9
36
09/20
-0.9
45
10/04
-0.6
47
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
Value
Ptile
11/16
-2.6
32
11/20
-0.8
44
11/30
-7.3
10
12/07
-0.9
44
12/14
4.0
77
12/21
-2.5
32
09/13
4.4
80
09/17
-7.2
7
09/28
-4.0
21
10/04
1.9
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Bears logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
22
1
Yards / Game
19
6
Passing Yards / Game
11
7
Rushing Yards / Game
11
6

EPA

EPA / Play
14
5
EPA / Pass
17
3
EPA / Rush
10
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
8
Interceptions / Game
11
2
Fumbles / Game
21
23
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
5
4th Down Efficiency
5
15
RZ Efficiency
27
22
Chiefs Offense vs Bears Defense
Chiefs logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
9
20
Yards / Game
25
14
Passing Yards / Game
19
10
Rushing Yards / Game
6
22

EPA

EPA / Play
5
28
EPA / Pass
15
22
EPA / Rush
1
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
20
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
7
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
29
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
12
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
8
W
W
U
11/27
-17
L
L
O
12/04
-13
L
L
O
12/15
-16
L
L
U
12/21
-6
L
W
U
12/28
-4
L
W
U
09/13
-8
L
L
O
09/20
-25
L
L
O
09/27
-26
L
L
U
10/04
2
W
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
-4
L
L
O
11/30
-13
L
L
U
12/07
-3
L
L
U
12/14
18
W
W
O
12/21
-8
L
L
U
12/28
12
W
W
U
09/13
7
W
W
O
09/17
-7
L
L
O
09/28
-10
L
L
O
10/04
-15
L
L
O