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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ colts week 3, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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CHI logo
CHIBears
1-1
16
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
21
INDColts
0-2
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
3
13
16
Colts
0
7
7
7
21

Spread

IND logo
-2

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
395
306
Total Plays
85
54
Yards / Play
4.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.17
Passing Yards
332
156
Comp/Att
33/53(62%)
10/20(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.14
-0.51
Rushing Yards
63
150
Rush Attempts
28
33
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
26
15
Passing 1st downs
18
4
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
43%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
21
12
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.86
-9.97
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-31
-11
Sack EPA
-10.57
-2.12
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
25
78
Penalty EPA
-4.80
-10.54

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+66
Home nfelo
1,448
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+71.5
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+8.4
Net QB Adjustment
+27.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-27.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

C. Williams headshot

C. Williams

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-27.8
Value
Ptile
09/08
-7.5
7
09/15
-10.2
2
A. Richardson headshot

A. Richardson

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Value
Ptile
09/10
-0.8
45
09/17
2.1
64
10/01
3.8
75
10/08
-4.1
24
09/08
2.3
65
09/15
-5.5
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Colts Defense
Bears logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
32
29
Passing Yards / Game
20
12
Rushing Yards / Game
24
23

EPA

EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
26
27
EPA / Rush
20
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
25
Interceptions / Game
6
5
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
24
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
29
4th Down Efficiency
12
11
RZ Efficiency
9
23
Colts Offense vs Bears Defense
Colts logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
13
27
Passing Yards / Game
24
29
Rushing Yards / Game
8
27

EPA

EPA / Play
23
17
EPA / Pass
23
10
EPA / Rush
17
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
1
Interceptions / Game
29
18
Fumbles / Game
22
3
Turnover EPA / Game
4
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
12
4th Down Efficiency
11
5
RZ Efficiency
23
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

6-4
SU
6-1-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
3
W
P
U
11/19
-5
L
W
O
11/27
2
W
W
U
12/10
15
W
W
U
12/17
-3
L
P
U
12/24
11
W
W
O
12/31
20
W
W
O
01/07
-8
L
L
U
09/08
7
W
W
U
09/15
-6
L
P
U
IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
4
W
W
U
11/26
7
W
W
O
12/03
3
W
W
O
12/10
-20
L
L
O
12/16
17
W
W
O
12/24
-19
L
L
U
12/31
3
W
L
O
01/06
-4
L
L
U
09/08
-2
L
W
O
09/15
-6
L
L
U