CHIBears
1-1
16
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
021
INDColts
0-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
3
13
16
Colts
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
395
306
Total Plays
85
54
Yards / Play
4.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.17
Passing Yards
332
156
Comp/Att
33/53(62%)
10/20(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.14
-0.51
Rushing Yards
63
150
Rush Attempts
28
33
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
15
Passing 1st downs
18
4
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
43%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
21
12
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.86
-9.97
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-31
-11
Sack EPA
-10.57
-2.12
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
25
78
Penalty EPA
-4.80
-10.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,481
Home Field
+71.6
Base HFA
+46.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.4
Time Adj
+8.4
Net QB Adjustment
+27.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.2
Away QB Adjustment
-27.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-27.9
Value
Ptile
A. Richardson
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
32
29
Passing Yards / Game
20
12
Rushing Yards / Game
24
23
EPA
EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
26
27
EPA / Rush
20
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
25
Interceptions / Game
6
5
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
24
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
29
4th Down Efficiency
12
11
RZ Efficiency
9
23
Colts Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
13
27
Passing Yards / Game
24
29
Rushing Yards / Game
8
27
EPA
EPA / Play
23
17
EPA / Pass
23
10
EPA / Rush
17
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
1
Interceptions / Game
29
18
Fumbles / Game
22
3
Turnover EPA / Game
4
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
12
4th Down Efficiency
11
5
RZ Efficiency
23
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
6-4
SU
6-1-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U