CHIBears
0-4
40
TBD
FedExField
70°F
1 mph
20
WASCommanders
2-2
TBD
FedExField
70°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
10
17
0
13
40
Commanders
0
3
11
6
20
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
451
390
Total Plays
64
68
Yards / Play
7.0
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.31
-0.09
Passing Yards
273
359
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
37/52(71%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.05
Rushing Yards
178
31
Rush Attempts
32
11
Yards / Rush
5.6
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
9
21
Rushing 1st downs
9
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.88
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-9
-29
Sack EPA
-3.00
-6.05
Penalties
3
1
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-3.08
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,367
Home Field
+35.3
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-15.4
Home QB Adjustment
-17.9
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
+17.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
S. Howell
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-17.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
32
Yards / Game
21
32
Passing Yards / Game
23
7
Rushing Yards / Game
2
27
EPA
EPA / Play
23
32
EPA / Pass
25
32
EPA / Rush
3
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
16
13
Turnover EPA / Game
10
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
26
4th Down Efficiency
16
29
RZ Efficiency
14
19
Commanders Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
19
Yards / Game
24
12
Passing Yards / Game
6
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
1
EPA
EPA / Play
26
8
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
10
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
7
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
4
RZ Efficiency
6
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
0-10
SU
1-8-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Commanders
4-5-1
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U