CHIBears
1-0
27
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
020
DALCowboys
0-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
10
10
0
7
27
Cowboys
1
7
3
3
14
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
410
Total Plays
49
71
Yards / Play
6.3
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.10
Passing Yards
270
--
Comp/Att
21/29(72%)
34/51(67%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.00
Rushing Yards
38
36
Rush Attempts
19
20
Yards / Rush
2.0
1.8
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
9%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-13.66
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-2.10
--
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-4.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+188
Home nfelo
1,569
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.0
Away QB Adjustment
+1.9
Market Regression
-53.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
31
Yards / Game
29
23
Passing Yards / Game
11
19
Rushing Yards / Game
19
11
EPA
EPA / Play
26
26
EPA / Pass
29
27
EPA / Rush
12
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
22
Interceptions / Game
30
6
Fumbles / Game
8
14
Turnover EPA / Game
7
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
22
4th Down Efficiency
28
12
RZ Efficiency
23
30
Cowboys Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
4
Yards / Game
8
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
2
EPA
EPA / Play
18
1
EPA / Pass
15
5
EPA / Rush
8
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
1
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
8
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
2
4th Down Efficiency
9
17
RZ Efficiency
8
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cowboys
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U