CHIBears
0-2
17
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
031
DALCowboys
1-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
7
7
17
Cowboys
10
14
0
7
31
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
447
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
6.1
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.14
Passing Yards
312
--
Comp/Att
30/49(61%)
19/24(79%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.36
Rushing Yards
78
199
Rush Attempts
14
41
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
14
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
20%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-8.07
-2.75
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-3.48
--
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
45
45
Penalty EPA
-3.95
-4.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model73.6%
Spread Pick
Cowboys-6.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+215
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+77.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+68.3
Home QB Adjustment
-13.2
Away QB Adjustment
-81.5
Market Regression
+3.0
Final Difference
178.4
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-81.5
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-13.2
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
8
Yards / Game
14
16
Passing Yards / Game
17
26
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1
EPA
EPA / Play
26
15
EPA / Pass
22
20
EPA / Rush
22
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
24
Interceptions / Game
28
26
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
4
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
17
4th Down Efficiency
31
23
RZ Efficiency
22
18
Cowboys Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
23
Yards / Game
5
14
Passing Yards / Game
20
2
Rushing Yards / Game
2
26
EPA
EPA / Play
4
26
EPA / Pass
4
24
EPA / Rush
2
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
25
Interceptions / Game
4
29
Fumbles / Game
21
30
Turnover EPA / Game
24
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
22
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
6
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cowboys
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U