CHIBears
3-4
29
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
049
DALCowboys
5-2
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
17
6
6
29
Cowboys
14
14
8
7
43
Spread
-9.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
371
442
Total Plays
73
57
Yards / Play
5.1
7.8
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.43
Passing Yards
131
242
Comp/Att
18/26(69%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.55
Rushing Yards
240
200
Rush Attempts
43
29
Yards / Rush
5.6
6.9
EPA / Rush
+0.27
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
4
15
Rushing 1st downs
15
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
40%
82%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.77
-4.01
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-25
-8
Sack EPA
-6.15
-1.28
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
--
41
Penalty EPA
--
-4.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+266
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,400
Home Field
+53.0
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.3
Home QB Adjustment
+8.0
Away QB Adjustment
-9.4
Market Regression
-22.4
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-9.4
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
6
Yards / Game
28
13
Passing Yards / Game
32
15
Rushing Yards / Game
1
22
EPA
EPA / Play
21
3
EPA / Pass
32
4
EPA / Rush
2
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
22
10
Fumbles / Game
20
1
Turnover EPA / Game
25
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
18
4th Down Efficiency
31
17
RZ Efficiency
13
5
Cowboys Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
32
Yards / Game
10
29
Passing Yards / Game
23
6
Rushing Yards / Game
9
31
EPA
EPA / Play
9
32
EPA / Pass
9
32
EPA / Rush
12
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
4
Interceptions / Game
30
13
Fumbles / Game
3
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
4
RZ Efficiency
1
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cowboys
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U