CHIBears
6-3
16
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
8 mph
0
MIADolphins
5-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
3
10
0
16
Dolphins
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
187
Total Plays
68
48
Yards / Play
3.9
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.37
Passing Yards
133
148
Comp/Att
16/25(64%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.51
Rushing Yards
135
39
Rush Attempts
40
13
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
10
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
56%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
10
1
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.50
-2.24
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-23
-39
Sack EPA
-4.25
-9.12
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
45
45
Penalty EPA
-5.40
-1.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model58.2%
Spread Pick
Dolphins-2.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+114
Home nfelo
1,574
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.6
Home QB Adjustment
-2.9
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
-6.2
Final Difference
57.2
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
T. Thigpen
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
13
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
11
7
Rushing Yards / Game
19
7
EPA
EPA / Play
26
15
EPA / Pass
29
24
EPA / Rush
12
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
11
Interceptions / Game
30
28
Fumbles / Game
8
17
Turnover EPA / Game
7
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
5
RZ Efficiency
23
2
Dolphins Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
4
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
3
Rushing Yards / Game
22
2
EPA
EPA / Play
25
1
EPA / Pass
20
5
EPA / Rush
26
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
1
Interceptions / Game
24
5
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
17
RZ Efficiency
14
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U