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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ dolphins week 11, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CHI logo
CHIBears
6-3
16
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
8 mph
0
MIADolphins
5-4
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
3
10
0
16
Dolphins
0
0
0
0
0

Spread

CHI logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
268
187
Total Plays
68
48
Yards / Play
3.9
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.37
Passing Yards
133
148
Comp/Att
16/25(64%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.51
Rushing Yards
135
39
Rush Attempts
40
13
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
19
10
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
56%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
10
1
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.50
-2.24
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-23
-39
Sack EPA
-4.25
-9.12
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
45
45
Penalty EPA
-5.40
-1.98

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model58.2%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins-2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+114
Home nfelo
1,575
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.6
Home QB Adjustment
-2.9
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
-6.2
Final Difference
57.2
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Value
Ptile
12/28
4.0
75
01/03
5.3
84
09/12
2.8
68
09/19
7.5
92
09/27
0.9
54
10/03
-14.9
0
10/17
-5.9
13
10/24
-7.5
8
11/07
3.7
74
11/14
1.7
59
T. Thigpen headshot

T. Thigpen

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
Value
Ptile
10/26
4.5
81
11/02
1.4
62
11/09
8.0
94
11/16
-0.9
46
11/23
0.1
53
11/30
0.6
55
12/07
0.9
58
12/14
3.5
75
12/21
1.9
64
12/28
-1.1
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bears logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
21
13
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
11
7
Rushing Yards / Game
19
7

EPA

EPA / Play
26
15
EPA / Pass
29
24
EPA / Rush
12
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
11
Interceptions / Game
30
28
Fumbles / Game
8
17
Turnover EPA / Game
7
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
5
RZ Efficiency
23
2
Dolphins Offense vs Bears Defense
Dolphins logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
30
4
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
3
Rushing Yards / Game
22
2

EPA

EPA / Play
25
1
EPA / Pass
20
5
EPA / Rush
26
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
1
Interceptions / Game
24
5
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
17
RZ Efficiency
14
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
14
W
W
O
09/12
5
W
L
U
09/19
7
W
W
O
09/27
3
W
W
U
10/03
-14
L
L
U
10/10
17
W
W
U
10/17
-3
L
L
O
10/24
-3
L
L
U
11/07
3
W
P
U
11/14
14
W
W
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-6
L
L
O
09/12
5
W
W
U
09/19
4
W
W
U
09/26
-8
L
L
O
10/04
-27
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
U
10/24
-1
L
W
O
10/31
8
W
W
U
11/07
-16
L
L
U
11/14
12
W
W
O