CHIBears
4-3
30
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
51°F
2 mph
24
PHIEagles
3-4
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
51°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
10
3
10
30
Eagles
0
4
14
0
18
Spread
+8
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
330
Total Plays
66
63
Yards / Play
5.6
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.02
Passing Yards
--
211
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
21/39(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.15
Rushing Yards
164
119
Rush Attempts
34
23
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
50%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-6.26
-6.72
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-2
Sack EPA
--
-1.00
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
53
44
Penalty EPA
-6.03
-6.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model72.4%
Spread Pick
Bears+8.0
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+102
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+2.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+22.4
Home QB Adjustment
+21.2
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
+30.0
Final Difference
167.9
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
9
Yards / Game
25
8
Passing Yards / Game
30
15
Rushing Yards / Game
9
16
EPA
EPA / Play
24
12
EPA / Pass
30
10
EPA / Rush
19
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
25
18
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
12
4th Down Efficiency
30
14
RZ Efficiency
12
27
Eagles Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
14
Yards / Game
5
17
Passing Yards / Game
10
22
Rushing Yards / Game
5
5
EPA
EPA / Play
8
4
EPA / Pass
15
9
EPA / Rush
3
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
5
Interceptions / Game
31
5
Fumbles / Game
21
18
Turnover EPA / Game
3
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
9
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
16
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Eagles
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U