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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ eagles week 16, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CHI logo
CHIBears
8-6
11
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
11 mph
54
PHIEagles
8-6
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
8
0
11
Eagles
21
3
7
15
46

Spread

PHI logo
-3

Total

OVER
53.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
259
514
Total Plays
64
63
Yards / Play
4.0
8.2
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.50
Passing Yards
198
225
Comp/Att
22/40(55%)
21/25(84%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.40
Rushing Yards
61
289
Rush Attempts
19
36
Yards / Rush
3.2
8.0
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.49
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
18
28
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
16
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.37
-3.47
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-46
-5
Sack EPA
-8.78
-1.82
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
10
15
Penalty EPA
-1.42
-1.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+96
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+22.8
Home QB Adjustment
-0.9
Away QB Adjustment
-23.7
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-23.7
Value
Ptile
12/30
1.1
57
09/08
4.2
79
09/15
3.4
73
09/22
-0.0
49
09/29
-3.2
30
10/06
7.6
91
10/10
5.5
85
10/20
-9.1
5
11/10
-2.6
35
12/15
2.0
64
N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Value
Ptile
12/13
-3.1
29
12/23
-0.8
44
10/13
8.8
93
10/20
-9.6
4
11/03
16.9
100
11/10
3.9
77
11/17
3.9
77
12/01
1.3
60
12/08
0.5
53
12/15
6.1
87

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Eagles Defense
Bears logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
7
31
Rushing Yards / Game
15
13

EPA

EPA / Play
7
21
EPA / Pass
6
20
EPA / Rush
8
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
9
Interceptions / Game
12
6
Fumbles / Game
17
3
Turnover EPA / Game
11
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
8
11
RZ Efficiency
7
12
Eagles Offense vs Bears Defense
Eagles logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
2
29
Passing Yards / Game
4
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
32

EPA

EPA / Play
4
31
EPA / Pass
5
16
EPA / Rush
2
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
30
Interceptions / Game
3
7
Fumbles / Game
12
20
Turnover EPA / Game
23
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
25
4th Down Efficiency
11
30
RZ Efficiency
13
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-8
L
L
U
10/10
6
W
L
O
10/20
-4
L
L
O
11/04
7
W
W
U
11/10
-2
L
L
U
11/17
3
W
L
O
11/24
-21
L
L
O
12/01
-3
L
L
U
12/09
17
W
W
O
12/15
7
W
W
O
PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
15
W
W
O
10/13
11
W
W
O
10/20
-14
L
L
U
10/27
-8
L
L
U
11/03
29
W
W
O
11/10
14
W
W
U
11/17
8
W
W
U
12/01
3
W
L
U
12/08
14
W
W
P
12/15
-18
L
L
O