CHIBears
8-6
11
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
11 mph
54
PHIEagles
8-6
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
8
0
11
Eagles
21
3
7
15
46
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
259
514
Total Plays
64
63
Yards / Play
4.0
8.2
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.50
Passing Yards
198
225
Comp/Att
22/40(55%)
21/25(84%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.40
Rushing Yards
61
289
Rush Attempts
19
36
Yards / Rush
3.2
8.0
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.49
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
28
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
16
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.37
-3.47
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-46
-5
Sack EPA
-8.78
-1.82
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
10
15
Penalty EPA
-1.42
-1.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,558
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+22.8
Home QB Adjustment
-0.9
Away QB Adjustment
-23.7
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-23.7
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
7
31
Rushing Yards / Game
15
13
EPA
EPA / Play
7
21
EPA / Pass
6
20
EPA / Rush
8
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
9
Interceptions / Game
12
6
Fumbles / Game
17
3
Turnover EPA / Game
11
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
8
11
RZ Efficiency
7
12
Eagles Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
2
29
Passing Yards / Game
4
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
32
EPA
EPA / Play
4
31
EPA / Pass
5
16
EPA / Rush
2
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
30
Interceptions / Game
3
7
Fumbles / Game
12
20
Turnover EPA / Game
23
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
25
4th Down Efficiency
11
30
RZ Efficiency
13
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U