CHIBears
3-1
14
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
021
ATLFalcons
3-1
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
0
7
14
Falcons
0
14
0
7
21
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
373
253
Total Plays
68
56
Yards / Play
5.5
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.01
Passing Yards
290
--
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.00
Rushing Yards
83
68
Rush Attempts
23
23
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
56%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.05
-5.11
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-2.26
--
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
65
70
Penalty EPA
-8.32
-9.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model62.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+24.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.0
Home QB Adjustment
+20.0
Away QB Adjustment
+24.0
Market Regression
+24.0
Final Difference
89.3
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.0
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
13
Yards / Game
23
20
Passing Yards / Game
11
22
Rushing Yards / Game
29
9
EPA
EPA / Play
24
14
EPA / Pass
23
24
EPA / Rush
21
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
24
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
3
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
25
13
RZ Efficiency
25
16
Falcons Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
29
19
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24
EPA
EPA / Play
15
18
EPA / Pass
11
20
EPA / Rush
13
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
14
Interceptions / Game
18
22
Fumbles / Game
8
3
Turnover EPA / Game
14
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
27
4th Down Efficiency
3
11
RZ Efficiency
13
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Falcons
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
2-2-6
O/U