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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ falcons week 6, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
3-1
14
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
21
ATLFalcons
3-1
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
0
7
14
Falcons
0
14
0
7
21

Spread

ATL logo
-4

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
373
253
Total Plays
68
56
Yards / Play
5.5
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.01
Passing Yards
290
--
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.00
Rushing Yards
83
68
Rush Attempts
23
23
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
56%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.05
-5.11
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-2.26
--
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
65
70
Penalty EPA
-8.32
-9.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model62.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+30
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+24.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.0
Home QB Adjustment
+20.0
Away QB Adjustment
+24.0
Market Regression
+24.4
Final Difference
89.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.0
Value
Ptile
11/23
-2.1
35
11/30
5.8
87
12/07
7.0
90
12/14
-2.7
29
12/21
6.1
88
12/28
2.2
67
09/13
-6.5
13
09/20
5.4
84
09/27
4.3
78
10/04
1.2
57
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
Value
Ptile
11/30
3.2
74
12/07
7.6
94
12/14
-1.5
40
12/21
-2.1
36
12/28
-5.9
11
01/03
-3.6
24
09/13
2.1
64
09/20
5.8
86
09/27
0.4
53
10/11
9.0
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Falcons Defense
Bears logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
19
13
Yards / Game
23
20
Passing Yards / Game
11
22
Rushing Yards / Game
29
9

EPA

EPA / Play
24
14
EPA / Pass
23
24
EPA / Rush
21
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
24
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
3
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
25
13
RZ Efficiency
25
16
Falcons Offense vs Bears Defense
Falcons logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
29
19
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24

EPA

EPA / Play
15
18
EPA / Pass
11
20
EPA / Rush
13
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
14
Interceptions / Game
18
22
Fumbles / Game
8
3
Turnover EPA / Game
14
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
27
4th Down Efficiency
3
11
RZ Efficiency
13
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
24
W
W
P
11/30
-20
L
L
P
12/07
13
W
W
P
12/11
3
W
P
P
12/22
3
W
L
P
12/28
-7
L
L
P
09/13
-6
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
U
09/27
6
W
W
O
10/04
24
W
W
O
ATL logo

Falcons

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
6
W
W
P
12/07
-4
L
L
P
12/14
3
W
L
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
4
W
L
P
01/03
-6
L
L
P
09/13
12
W
W
U
09/20
8
W
W
O
09/27
-16
L
L
U
10/11
35
W
W
O