CHIBears
3-0
3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
59°F
14 mph
17
NYGGiants
1-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
59°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
0
3
3
Giants
3
0
7
7
17
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
110
372
Total Plays
52
64
Yards / Play
2.1
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.60
-0.29
Passing Yards
51
183
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
2.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
-1.02
-0.20
Rushing Yards
59
189
Rush Attempts
16
32
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
6
18
Passing 1st downs
3
7
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
0%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
--
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-9.36
-12.05
Sacks
10
2
Sack Yards
-63
-12
Sack EPA
-15.05
-5.76
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
40
44
Penalty EPA
-4.00
-3.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+58
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+11.3
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
17
Yards / Game
29
7
Passing Yards / Game
11
13
Rushing Yards / Game
19
8
EPA
EPA / Play
26
3
EPA / Pass
29
3
EPA / Rush
12
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
31
Interceptions / Game
30
14
Fumbles / Game
8
1
Turnover EPA / Game
7
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
1
4th Down Efficiency
28
21
RZ Efficiency
23
18
Giants Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
4
Yards / Game
4
10
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
6
2
EPA
EPA / Play
21
1
EPA / Pass
14
5
EPA / Rush
27
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
1
Interceptions / Game
31
5
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
1
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
32
17
RZ Efficiency
11
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Giants
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U