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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ giants week 4, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
3-0
3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
59°F
14 mph
17
NYGGiants
1-2
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
59°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
0
3
3
Giants
3
0
7
7
17

Spread

NYG logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
110
372
Total Plays
52
64
Yards / Play
2.1
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.60
-0.29
Passing Yards
51
183
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
2.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
-1.02
-0.20
Rushing Yards
59
189
Rush Attempts
16
32
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
6
18
Passing 1st downs
3
7
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
0%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
--
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-9.36
-12.05
Sacks
10
2
Sack Yards
-63
-12
Sack EPA
-15.05
-5.76
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
40
44
Penalty EPA
-4.00
-3.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+56
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+11.3
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Value
Ptile
11/22
-1.3
42
11/29
-4.4
22
12/06
-3.6
27
12/13
-1.4
40
12/20
-11.3
1
12/28
4.0
75
01/03
5.3
84
09/12
2.8
68
09/19
7.5
92
09/27
0.9
54
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Value
Ptile
11/22
6.8
88
11/26
-3.5
28
12/06
-0.6
46
12/13
10.8
98
12/21
6.5
87
12/27
-0.9
44
01/03
-5.1
20
09/12
0.9
54
09/19
-4.1
24
09/26
2.3
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Giants Defense
Bears logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
21
17
Yards / Game
29
7
Passing Yards / Game
11
13
Rushing Yards / Game
19
8

EPA

EPA / Play
26
3
EPA / Pass
29
3
EPA / Rush
12
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
31
Interceptions / Game
30
14
Fumbles / Game
8
1
Turnover EPA / Game
7
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
1
4th Down Efficiency
28
21
RZ Efficiency
23
18
Giants Offense vs Bears Defense
Giants logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
9
4
Yards / Game
4
10
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
6
2

EPA

EPA / Play
21
1
EPA / Pass
14
5
EPA / Rush
27
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
1
Interceptions / Game
31
5
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
1
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
32
17
RZ Efficiency
11
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-4
L
L
U
11/29
-26
L
L
U
12/06
8
W
L
U
12/13
-7
L
L
U
12/20
-24
L
L
U
12/28
6
W
W
O
01/03
14
W
W
O
09/12
5
W
L
U
09/19
7
W
W
O
09/27
3
W
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
3
W
L
O
11/26
-20
L
L
U
12/06
7
W
W
O
12/13
-7
L
L
O
12/21
33
W
W
O
12/27
-32
L
L
O
01/03
-37
L
L
O
09/12
13
W
W
O
09/19
-24
L
L
O
09/26
-19
L
L
U