CHIBears
8-3
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
3 mph
30
NYGGiants
3-8
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bears
7
7
0
13
0
27
Giants
1
3
14
3
3
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
376
338
Total Plays
77
68
Yards / Play
4.9
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.12
Passing Yards
258
197
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.06
Rushing Yards
118
141
Rush Attempts
32
29
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
13%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.72
-5.43
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-28
-22
Sack EPA
-5.41
-3.74
Penalties
8
12
Penalty Yards
58
107
Penalty EPA
-11.97
-12.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model53.1%
Spread Pick
Giants+3.5
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+41
Home nfelo
1,445
Away nfelo
1,618
Home Field
+87.3
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+127.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-125.3
Market Regression
+20.0
Final Difference
-21.9
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
W. Daniel
Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-125.3
Value
Ptile
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
23
Yards / Game
21
24
Passing Yards / Game
13
18
Rushing Yards / Game
14
21
EPA
EPA / Play
17
28
EPA / Pass
12
26
EPA / Rush
17
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
10
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
20
19
Turnover EPA / Game
13
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
32
RZ Efficiency
12
13
Giants Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
1
Yards / Game
16
3
Passing Yards / Game
8
12
Rushing Yards / Game
24
1
EPA
EPA / Play
13
1
EPA / Pass
15
3
EPA / Rush
11
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
14
1
Fumbles / Game
3
17
Turnover EPA / Game
22
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
17
RZ Efficiency
29
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U