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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ giants week 13, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CHI logo
CHIBears
8-3
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
3 mph
30
NYGGiants
3-8
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bears
7
7
0
13
0
27
Giants
1
3
14
3
3
24

Spread

NYG logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
376
338
Total Plays
77
68
Yards / Play
4.9
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.12
Passing Yards
258
197
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.06
Rushing Yards
118
141
Rush Attempts
32
29
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
13%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.72
-5.43
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-28
-22
Sack EPA
-5.41
-3.74
Penalties
8
12
Penalty Yards
58
107
Penalty EPA
-11.97
-12.71

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model52.6%
Spread Pick
NYG logo
Giants+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.8%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+48
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,611
Home Field
+88.4
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+127.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-125.3
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
-18.5
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

W. Daniel headshot

W. Daniel

Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-125.3
Value
Ptile
12/29
3.6
74
12/28
-6.5
13
11/22
-0.2
44
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
09/16
-0.6
42
09/23
3.5
72
09/30
1.1
54
10/07
0.6
51
10/11
-6.4
11
10/22
2.1
63
10/28
-6.7
11
11/12
2.2
64
11/18
-0.4
43
11/25
-0.1
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Giants Defense
Bears logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
10
23
Yards / Game
21
24
Passing Yards / Game
13
18
Rushing Yards / Game
14
21

EPA

EPA / Play
17
28
EPA / Pass
12
26
EPA / Rush
17
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
10
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
20
19
Turnover EPA / Game
13
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
32
RZ Efficiency
12
13
Giants Offense vs Bears Defense
Giants logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
16
1
Yards / Game
16
3
Passing Yards / Game
8
12
Rushing Yards / Game
24
1

EPA

EPA / Play
13
1
EPA / Pass
15
3
EPA / Rush
11
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
14
1
Fumbles / Game
3
17
Turnover EPA / Game
22
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
17
RZ Efficiency
29
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
7
W
W
U
09/23
2
W
L
U
09/30
38
W
W
O
10/14
-3
L
L
O
10/21
-7
L
L
O
10/28
14
W
W
U
11/04
32
W
W
O
11/11
12
W
W
O
11/18
5
W
W
O
11/22
7
W
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
-7
L
L
U
09/23
5
W
W
O
09/30
-15
L
L
U
10/07
-2
L
W
O
10/11
-21
L
L
O
10/22
-3
L
W
U
10/28
-7
L
L
U
11/12
4
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
P
O
11/25
-3
L
W
U