CHIBears
-
27
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
023
DETLions
-
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
3
0
21
27
Lions
3
10
10
0
23
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
363
426
Total Plays
65
72
Yards / Play
5.6
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.05
Passing Yards
214
288
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
24/42(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.05
Rushing Yards
149
138
Rush Attempts
28
29
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
25
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
18%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.75
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-28
-9
Sack EPA
-1.80
-2.06
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
48
77
Penalty EPA
-6.38
-8.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+9
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+6.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+17.2
Home QB Adjustment
+15.6
Away QB Adjustment
-1.6
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+15.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
32
Yards / Game
28
32
Passing Yards / Game
14
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
28
EPA
EPA / Play
22
32
EPA / Pass
24
32
EPA / Rush
20
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
10
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
9
27
Turnover EPA / Game
20
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
28
4th Down Efficiency
14
22
RZ Efficiency
21
31
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
13
Yards / Game
20
11
Passing Yards / Game
9
22
Rushing Yards / Game
30
14
EPA
EPA / Play
20
10
EPA / Pass
18
20
EPA / Rush
29
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
17
Interceptions / Game
17
28
Fumbles / Game
12
21
Turnover EPA / Game
7
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
11
4th Down Efficiency
24
18
RZ Efficiency
10
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U