CHIBears
2-2
13
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
024
DETLions
4-0
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
10
0
3
13
Lions
0
7
14
3
24
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
395
Total Plays
66
47
Yards / Play
5.4
8.4
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.16
Passing Yards
237
214
Comp/Att
28/38(74%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.19
Rushing Yards
122
181
Rush Attempts
25
20
Yards / Rush
4.9
9.1
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
31%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-0.89
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-12
-5
Sack EPA
-0.96
-2.35
Penalties
14
12
Penalty Yards
104
94
Penalty EPA
-12.38
-10.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model66.9%
Spread Pick
Bears+6.5
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+85
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+24.9
Home QB Adjustment
+13.8
Away QB Adjustment
-11.2
Market Regression
+2.0
Final Difference
122.0
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-11.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
24
Yards / Game
25
28
Passing Yards / Game
30
31
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25
EPA
EPA / Play
24
13
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
19
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
17
Interceptions / Game
25
8
Fumbles / Game
22
3
Turnover EPA / Game
8
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
7
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
12
14
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
14
Yards / Game
4
17
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
30
5
EPA
EPA / Play
9
4
EPA / Pass
7
9
EPA / Rush
14
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
5
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
9
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
3
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Lions
8-2
SU
8-1-1
ATS
7-2-1
O/U