CHIBears
2-3
34
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
037
DETLions
0-5
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bears
3
10
3
18
0
34
Lions
7
14
3
10
3
37
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
446
546
Total Plays
74
76
Yards / Play
6.0
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.18
Passing Yards
355
391
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
9.3
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.26
Rushing Yards
91
155
Rush Attempts
31
32
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
26
Passing 1st downs
13
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
43%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
38%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
8
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+4.69
-3.84
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
-0.54
-5.08
Penalties
9
10
Penalty Yards
76
98
Penalty EPA
-9.47
-11.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+107
Home nfelo
1,450
Away nfelo
1,399
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-11.3
Home QB Adjustment
-4.4
Away QB Adjustment
+6.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
23
Yards / Game
19
18
Passing Yards / Game
11
29
Rushing Yards / Game
11
20
EPA
EPA / Play
14
24
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
10
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
9
Interceptions / Game
11
26
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
18
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
5
26
RZ Efficiency
27
29
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
20
Yards / Game
18
14
Passing Yards / Game
9
10
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22
EPA
EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
16
22
EPA / Rush
19
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
20
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
11
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
2
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U