CHIBears
7-3
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
016
DETLions
4-6
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
9
0
8
17
Lions
0
7
6
3
16
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
264
333
Total Plays
58
65
Yards / Play
4.6
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.25
Passing Yards
226
222
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.31
Rushing Yards
38
111
Rush Attempts
15
24
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
30%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.74
-13.82
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-12
-14
Sack EPA
-5.55
-1.26
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
20
54
Penalty EPA
-2.88
-6.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model47.9%
Spread Pick
Lions+3.0
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
54.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+95
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+61.6
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+126.7
Home QB Adjustment
-12.2
Away QB Adjustment
-138.9
Market Regression
+15.7
Final Difference
14.6
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
W. Daniel
Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-138.9
Value
Ptile
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-12.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
16
Yards / Game
21
9
Passing Yards / Game
13
25
Rushing Yards / Game
14
11
EPA
EPA / Play
17
15
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
17
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
14
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
13
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
20
12
Rushing Yards / Game
23
1
EPA
EPA / Play
23
1
EPA / Pass
22
3
EPA / Rush
25
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
24
Interceptions / Game
14
1
Fumbles / Game
18
17
Turnover EPA / Game
17
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
4
4th Down Efficiency
9
17
RZ Efficiency
25
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U