CHIBears
8-3
24
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
020
DETLions
2-9
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
7
3
7
24
Lions
7
10
3
0
20
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
302
Total Plays
58
53
Yards / Play
5.4
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.01
Passing Yards
197
168
Comp/Att
21/26(81%)
16/24(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.02
Rushing Yards
114
134
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
14
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
56%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.48
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-37
-10
Sack EPA
-11.13
-2.25
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
25
42
Penalty EPA
-2.88
-5.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-139
Home nfelo
1,372
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-43.2
Home QB Adjustment
-32.0
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
-15.1
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
D. Stanton
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-32.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
19
Yards / Game
29
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
28
Rushing Yards / Game
19
24
EPA
EPA / Play
26
11
EPA / Pass
29
6
EPA / Rush
12
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
26
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
8
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
19
4th Down Efficiency
28
9
RZ Efficiency
23
23
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
4
Yards / Game
15
10
Passing Yards / Game
6
3
Rushing Yards / Game
23
2
EPA
EPA / Play
20
1
EPA / Pass
19
5
EPA / Rush
17
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
16
5
Fumbles / Game
9
7
Turnover EPA / Game
18
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
2
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
2
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U