CHIBears
5-6
24
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
020
DETLions
3-7
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
3
7
7
24
Lions
14
3
0
3
20
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
419
364
Total Plays
62
67
Yards / Play
6.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.06
Passing Yards
331
259
Comp/Att
29/38(76%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.11
Rushing Yards
88
105
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.23
-0.51
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-21
Sack EPA
-1.91
-3.27
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
89
85
Penalty EPA
-10.83
-6.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-111
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+52.3
Base HFA
+48.5
Divisional Adj
-21.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.9
Time Adj
+8.7
Net QB Adjustment
-131.5
Home QB Adjustment
-148.4
Away QB Adjustment
-16.8
Market Regression
-77.0
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.8
D. Blough
Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-148.4
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
26
Yards / Game
29
31
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21
EPA
EPA / Play
28
23
EPA / Pass
24
26
EPA / Rush
29
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
13
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
22
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
28
4th Down Efficiency
29
14
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
4
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
12
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
9
EPA
EPA / Play
21
6
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
27
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
21
25
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
6
4th Down Efficiency
24
23
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U