nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ lions week 13, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CHI logo
CHIBears
5-6
24
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
20
DETLions
3-7
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
3
7
7
24
Lions
14
3
0
3
20

Spread

DET logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
419
364
Total Plays
62
67
Yards / Play
6.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.06
Passing Yards
331
259
Comp/Att
29/38(76%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.11
Rushing Yards
88
105
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.23
-0.51
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-21
Sack EPA
-1.91
-3.27
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
89
85
Penalty EPA
-10.83
-6.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-116
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+52.7
Base HFA
+48.9
Divisional Adj
-22.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.1
Time Adj
+8.8
Net QB Adjustment
-131.5
Home QB Adjustment
-148.4
Away QB Adjustment
-16.8
Market Regression
-75.3
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-16.8
Value
Ptile
09/05
-8.2
8
09/15
-3.0
31
09/23
1.3
62
09/29
-5.6
17
10/20
1.3
63
10/27
-4.9
20
11/03
-7.5
10
11/10
-2.8
32
11/17
-5.3
18
11/24
-1.7
40
D. Blough headshot

D. Blough

Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-148.4
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Bears logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
29
26
Yards / Game
29
31
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21

EPA

EPA / Play
28
23
EPA / Pass
24
26
EPA / Rush
29
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
13
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
22
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
28
4th Down Efficiency
29
14
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Lions logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
18
4
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
12
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
9

EPA

EPA / Play
21
6
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
27
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
21
25
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
6
4th Down Efficiency
24
23
RZ Efficiency
12
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
2
W
L
U
09/23
16
W
W
O
09/29
10
W
W
U
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/20
-11
L
L
O
10/27
-1
L
L
U
11/03
-8
L
L
U
11/10
7
W
W
U
11/17
-10
L
L
U
11/24
5
W
L
U
DET logo

Lions

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
3
W
W
U
09/22
3
W
W
O
09/29
-4
L
W
O
10/14
-1
L
W
U
10/20
-12
L
L
O
10/27
5
W
L
O
11/03
-7
L
L
O
11/10
-7
L
L
U
11/17
-8
L
L
O
11/24
-3
L
L
U