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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ lions week 15, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
4-9
10
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
20
DETLions
7-6
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
0
7
10
Lions
3
10
7
0
20

Spread

DET logo
-5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
349
293
Total Plays
63
57
Yards / Play
5.5
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.00
Passing Yards
306
202
Comp/Att
31/46(67%)
25/33(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.03
Rushing Yards
43
91
Rush Attempts
15
20
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
42%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-12.35
-2.47
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-8
-35
Sack EPA
-3.00
-6.58
Penalties
13
8
Penalty Yards
97
58
Penalty EPA
-10.73
-6.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+115
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,417
Home Field
+40.5
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
-25.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.3
Away QB Adjustment
+12.1
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
Value
Ptile
10/09
-4.1
24
10/15
-4.0
25
10/22
-8.2
7
10/29
-4.6
21
11/12
-3.2
30
11/19
1.9
66
11/26
-8.2
7
12/03
-2.5
36
12/10
5.9
87
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Value
Ptile
10/01
-7.5
10
10/08
-2.5
35
10/15
-7.9
8
10/29
5.1
84
11/06
7.5
92
11/12
-0.5
48
11/19
3.1
75
11/23
-1.6
41
12/03
2.7
72
12/10
6.2
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Bears logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
29
21
Yards / Game
30
27
Passing Yards / Game
24
16
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19

EPA

EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
28
11
EPA / Rush
17
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
7
Interceptions / Game
13
3
Fumbles / Game
25
4
Turnover EPA / Game
15
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
15
4th Down Efficiency
23
21
RZ Efficiency
5
28
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Lions logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
8
8
Yards / Game
13
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
21
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10

EPA

EPA / Play
20
11
EPA / Pass
12
13
EPA / Rush
32
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
16
Interceptions / Game
10
29
Fumbles / Game
28
1
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
20
4th Down Efficiency
31
22
RZ Efficiency
14
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/09
-3
L
W
U
10/15
3
W
W
O
10/22
14
W
W
U
10/29
-8
L
L
U
11/12
-7
L
L
O
11/19
-3
L
P
O
11/26
-28
L
L
U
12/03
-1
L
L
U
12/10
26
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
7
W
W
U
10/08
-3
L
L
O
10/15
-14
L
L
O
10/29
-5
L
L
U
11/06
13
W
W
O
11/12
14
W
W
O
11/19
3
W
P
O
11/23
-7
L
L
O
12/03
-24
L
L
O
12/10
3
W
W
U