CHIBears
4-9
10
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
020
DETLions
7-6
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
0
7
10
Lions
3
10
7
0
20
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
293
Total Plays
63
57
Yards / Play
5.5
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.00
Passing Yards
306
202
Comp/Att
31/46(67%)
25/33(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.03
Rushing Yards
43
91
Rush Attempts
15
20
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
42%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-12.35
-2.47
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-8
-35
Sack EPA
-3.00
-6.58
Penalties
13
8
Penalty Yards
97
58
Penalty EPA
-10.73
-6.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+113
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+40.0
Base HFA
+55.7
Divisional Adj
-25.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
-10.0
Net QB Adjustment
-2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.3
Away QB Adjustment
+12.1
Market Regression
-23.0
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
21
Yards / Game
30
27
Passing Yards / Game
24
16
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19
EPA
EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
28
11
EPA / Rush
17
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
7
Interceptions / Game
13
3
Fumbles / Game
25
4
Turnover EPA / Game
15
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
15
4th Down Efficiency
23
21
RZ Efficiency
5
28
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
8
Yards / Game
13
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
21
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10
EPA
EPA / Play
20
11
EPA / Pass
12
13
EPA / Rush
32
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
16
Interceptions / Game
10
29
Fumbles / Game
28
1
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
20
4th Down Efficiency
31
22
RZ Efficiency
14
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U