CHIBears
6-9
37
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
023
DETLions
2-13
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
10
7
17
37
Lions
3
7
3
10
23
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
418
349
Total Plays
66
61
Yards / Play
6.3
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.09
Passing Yards
268
249
Comp/Att
22/36(61%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.06
Rushing Yards
150
100
Rush Attempts
28
25
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.13
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-8
-13
Sack EPA
-2.95
-3.23
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
35
35
Penalty EPA
-2.87
-4.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-155
Home nfelo
1,241
Away nfelo
1,450
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-13.4
Home QB Adjustment
-29.9
Away QB Adjustment
-16.5
Market Regression
-13.1
Final Difference
-127.1
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-16.5
D. Culpepper
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-29.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
32
Yards / Game
23
32
Passing Yards / Game
11
30
Rushing Yards / Game
29
25
EPA
EPA / Play
24
29
EPA / Pass
23
31
EPA / Rush
21
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
9
Interceptions / Game
30
30
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
3
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
25
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
25
17
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
21
Yards / Game
26
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
19
Rushing Yards / Game
23
24
EPA
EPA / Play
30
18
EPA / Pass
29
20
EPA / Rush
25
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
32
22
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
1
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
27
4th Down Efficiency
32
11
RZ Efficiency
24
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
1-9
SU
2-6-2
ATS
4-6
O/U