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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ lions week 17, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CHI logo
CHIBears
6-9
37
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
23
DETLions
2-13
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
10
7
17
37
Lions
3
7
3
10
23

Spread

CHI logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
418
349
Total Plays
66
61
Yards / Play
6.3
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.09
Passing Yards
268
249
Comp/Att
22/36(61%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.06
Rushing Yards
150
100
Rush Attempts
28
25
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.13
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-8
-13
Sack EPA
-2.95
-3.23
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
35
35
Penalty EPA
-2.87
-4.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model67.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-157
Home nfelo
1,238
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-13.4
Home QB Adjustment
-29.9
Away QB Adjustment
-16.5
Market Regression
-12.6
Final Difference
-127.4
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-16.5
Value
Ptile
10/25
-2.2
37
11/01
-4.3
23
11/08
4.9
81
11/12
-7.3
9
11/22
-1.3
42
11/29
-4.4
22
12/06
-3.6
27
12/13
-1.4
40
12/20
-11.3
1
12/28
4.0
75
D. Culpepper headshot

D. Culpepper

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-29.9
Value
Ptile
11/25
-0.9
42
11/09
-7.4
8
11/16
-2.2
34
11/23
-8.8
4
11/27
-3.9
22
12/07
-0.1
52
10/11
-1.0
43
10/18
-8.5
6
12/13
-8.2
8
12/20
-7.2
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Bears logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
19
32
Yards / Game
23
32
Passing Yards / Game
11
30
Rushing Yards / Game
29
25

EPA

EPA / Play
24
29
EPA / Pass
23
31
EPA / Rush
21
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
9
Interceptions / Game
30
30
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
3
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
25
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
25
17
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Lions logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
27
21
Yards / Game
26
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
19
Rushing Yards / Game
23
24

EPA

EPA / Play
30
18
EPA / Pass
29
20
EPA / Rush
25
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
32
22
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
1
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
27
4th Down Efficiency
32
11
RZ Efficiency
24
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-35
L
L
O
11/01
24
W
W
U
11/08
-20
L
L
O
11/12
-4
L
L
U
11/22
-4
L
L
U
11/29
-26
L
L
U
12/06
8
W
L
U
12/13
-7
L
L
U
12/20
-24
L
L
U
12/28
6
W
W
O
DET logo

Lions

1-9
SU
2-6-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
-26
L
L
U
11/01
-7
L
L
U
11/08
-12
L
L
O
11/15
-17
L
P
U
11/22
1
W
L
O
11/26
-22
L
L
U
12/06
-10
L
W
U
12/13
-45
L
L
O
12/20
-7
L
W
O
12/27
-14
L
P
U