CHIBears
3-12
10
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
041
DETLions
7-8
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
10
0
0
0
10
Lions
7
17
14
3
41
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
230
504
Total Plays
50
70
Yards / Play
4.6
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.33
+0.25
Passing Yards
30
239
Comp/Att
7/21(33%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
1.4
8.2
EPA / Pass
-1.29
+0.17
Rushing Yards
200
265
Rush Attempts
22
39
Yards / Rush
9.1
6.8
EPA / Rush
+0.46
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
26
Passing 1st downs
2
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
23%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.80
--
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-45
-16
Sack EPA
-15.42
-2.88
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
49
42
Penalty EPA
-5.63
-6.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+148
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,363
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+41.7
Divisional Adj
-18.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-6.5
Home QB Adjustment
+23.0
Away QB Adjustment
+29.5
Market Regression
-41.6
Final Difference
113.9
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+29.5
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+23.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
28
Yards / Game
28
32
Passing Yards / Game
32
22
Rushing Yards / Game
1
29
EPA
EPA / Play
21
30
EPA / Pass
32
24
EPA / Rush
2
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
22
19
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
25
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
30
4th Down Efficiency
31
21
RZ Efficiency
13
26
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
32
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
17
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
31
EPA
EPA / Play
4
32
EPA / Pass
3
32
EPA / Rush
25
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
4
Interceptions / Game
2
13
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
30
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
4
RZ Efficiency
4
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Lions
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U