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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ packers week 1, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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CHI logo
CHIBears
-
15
TBD
Lambeau Field
76°F
0
21
GBPackers
-
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
76°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
10
3
13
Packers
0
10
0
11
21

Spread

GB logo
-5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
352
228
Total Plays
69
55
Yards / Play
5.1
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.14
Passing Yards
266
152
Comp/Att
17/36(47%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.37
-0.04
Rushing Yards
86
76
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
18
12
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
27%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-21.35
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-11
-34
Sack EPA
-1.91
-4.65
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
25
45
Penalty EPA
-1.92
-6.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model57.3%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears+5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.8%
Cover Probability
61.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-14
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-25.8
Home QB Adjustment
+8.5
Away QB Adjustment
+34.2
Market Regression
+29.6
Final Difference
51.1
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+34.2
Value
Ptile
10/20
-2.9
28
11/02
-2.1
34
11/06
9.4
96
11/16
2.8
70
11/23
-2.1
35
11/30
5.8
87
12/07
7.0
90
12/14
-2.7
29
12/21
6.1
88
12/28
2.2
67
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.5
Value
Ptile
10/19
4.5
81
11/02
-0.6
47
11/09
-5.3
13
11/16
4.8
83
11/24
-0.4
50
11/30
6.4
88
12/07
2.1
66
12/14
0.5
55
12/22
3.1
73
12/28
3.5
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Bears logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
15
Yards / Game
23
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
10
Rushing Yards / Game
29
2

EPA

EPA / Play
24
5
EPA / Pass
23
8
EPA / Rush
21
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
1
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
4
19
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
25
4
RZ Efficiency
25
28
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Packers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
2
21
Yards / Game
3
17
Passing Yards / Game
1
19
Rushing Yards / Game
16
24

EPA

EPA / Play
4
18
EPA / Pass
5
20
EPA / Rush
5
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
14
Interceptions / Game
2
22
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
27
4th Down Efficiency
20
11
RZ Efficiency
7
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
7
W
W
P
11/02
4
W
L
P
11/09
-7
L
L
P
11/16
-34
L
L
P
11/23
24
W
W
P
11/30
-20
L
L
P
12/07
13
W
W
P
12/11
3
W
P
P
12/22
3
W
L
P
12/28
-7
L
L
P
GB logo

Packers

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
20
W
W
P
11/02
-3
L
W
P
11/09
-1
L
W
P
11/16
34
W
W
P
11/24
-22
L
L
P
11/30
-4
L
L
P
12/07
-3
L
L
P
12/14
-4
L
L
P
12/22
-3
L
W
P
12/28
10
W
L
P