CHIBears
-
15
TBD
Lambeau Field
76°F
021
GBPackers
-
TBD
Lambeau Field
76°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
10
3
13
Packers
0
10
0
11
21
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
228
Total Plays
69
55
Yards / Play
5.1
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.14
Passing Yards
266
152
Comp/Att
17/36(47%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.37
-0.04
Rushing Yards
86
76
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
12
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
27%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-21.35
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-11
-34
Sack EPA
-1.91
-4.65
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
25
45
Penalty EPA
-1.92
-6.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model57.3%
Spread Pick
Bears+5.0
Expected Value
+18.8%
Cover Probability
61.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-14
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-25.8
Home QB Adjustment
+8.5
Away QB Adjustment
+34.2
Market Regression
+29.6
Final Difference
51.1
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+34.2
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
15
Yards / Game
23
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
10
Rushing Yards / Game
29
2
EPA
EPA / Play
24
5
EPA / Pass
23
8
EPA / Rush
21
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
1
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
4
19
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
25
4
RZ Efficiency
25
28
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
21
Yards / Game
3
17
Passing Yards / Game
1
19
Rushing Yards / Game
16
24
EPA
EPA / Play
4
18
EPA / Pass
5
20
EPA / Rush
5
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
14
Interceptions / Game
2
22
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
27
4th Down Efficiency
20
11
RZ Efficiency
7
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Packers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U