CHIBears
4-6
17
TBD
Lambeau Field
39°F
19 mph
13
GBPackers
7-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
39°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
14
0
3
17
Packers
7
6
0
0
13
Spread
+8
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
365
Total Plays
63
73
Yards / Play
4.6
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.13
Passing Yards
189
188
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
22/43(51%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.33
Rushing Yards
101
177
Rush Attempts
31
28
Yards / Rush
3.3
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
36%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.49
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-11
-14
Sack EPA
-1.81
-4.25
Penalties
12
3
Penalty Yards
95
38
Penalty EPA
-10.98
-5.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+181
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+33.7
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
-27.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.8
Away QB Adjustment
+21.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.7
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
19
17
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
19
EPA
EPA / Play
14
13
EPA / Pass
17
7
EPA / Rush
10
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
10
Interceptions / Game
11
8
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
8
4th Down Efficiency
5
14
RZ Efficiency
27
13
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
20
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
16
10
Rushing Yards / Game
9
22
EPA
EPA / Play
10
28
EPA / Pass
18
22
EPA / Rush
8
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
20
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
10
26
Turnover EPA / Game
26
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
16
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U