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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ packers week 12, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
4-6
17
TBD
Lambeau Field
39°F
19 mph
13
GBPackers
7-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
39°F
19 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
14
0
3
17
Packers
7
6
0
0
13

Spread

CHI logo
+8

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
290
365
Total Plays
63
73
Yards / Play
4.6
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.13
Passing Yards
189
188
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
22/43(51%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.33
Rushing Yards
101
177
Rush Attempts
31
28
Yards / Rush
3.3
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
36%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.49
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-11
-14
Sack EPA
-1.81
-4.25
Penalties
12
3
Penalty Yards
95
38
Penalty EPA
-10.98
-5.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,614
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+34.0
Base HFA
+61.9
Divisional Adj
-27.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.8
Away QB Adjustment
+21.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.7
Value
Ptile
12/28
-0.8
45
09/13
-1.9
36
09/20
-0.9
45
10/04
-0.6
47
10/11
1.4
61
10/18
2.6
69
11/01
3.7
77
11/09
3.1
74
11/15
7.1
91
11/22
-1.0
44
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.8
Value
Ptile
09/13
6.6
89
09/20
5.4
84
09/28
12.3
99
10/04
1.7
63
10/11
0.0
51
10/18
0.3
52
11/01
-3.5
25
11/08
2.9
72
11/15
1.1
57
11/22
-1.8
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Bears logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
19
17
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
19

EPA

EPA / Play
14
13
EPA / Pass
17
7
EPA / Rush
10
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
10
Interceptions / Game
11
8
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
8
4th Down Efficiency
5
14
RZ Efficiency
27
13
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Packers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
14
20
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
16
10
Rushing Yards / Game
9
22

EPA

EPA / Play
10
28
EPA / Pass
18
22
EPA / Rush
8
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
20
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
10
26
Turnover EPA / Game
26
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
16
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-8
L
L
O
09/20
-25
L
L
O
09/27
-26
L
L
U
10/04
2
W
W
U
10/11
1
W
W
U
10/18
-3
L
W
O
11/01
-3
L
L
U
11/09
3
W
W
U
11/15
24
W
W
O
11/22
-2
L
W
U
GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
8
W
W
O
09/20
10
W
W
U
09/28
10
W
W
O
10/04
14
W
W
U
10/11
14
W
W
U
10/18
7
W
L
U
11/01
-19
L
L
U
11/08
-8
L
L
O
11/15
-2
L
L
U
11/22
17
W
W
U