CHIBears
11-4
3
TBD
Lambeau Field
19°F
14 mph
10
GBPackers
9-6
TBD
Lambeau Field
19°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
0
0
3
Packers
0
0
3
7
10
Spread
+12
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
227
284
Total Plays
65
53
Yards / Play
3.5
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.24
Passing Yards
117
224
Comp/Att
21/39(54%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
3.0
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.53
-0.17
Rushing Yards
110
60
Rush Attempts
20
23
Yards / Rush
5.5
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
14
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
31%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.86
-10.47
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-51
-5
Sack EPA
-9.50
-2.53
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
46
--
Penalty EPA
-4.79
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-12.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market83.4%
Model81.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,628
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.5
Home QB Adjustment
+20.5
Away QB Adjustment
+10.0
Market Regression
+32.7
Final Difference
262.2
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.0
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
1
Yards / Game
29
5
Passing Yards / Game
11
14
Rushing Yards / Game
19
12
EPA
EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
12
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
14
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
8
26
Turnover EPA / Game
7
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
23
14
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
4
Yards / Game
9
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
3
Rushing Yards / Game
24
2
EPA
EPA / Play
4
1
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
11
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
4
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U