CHIBears
7-9
9
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
7 mph
17
GBPackers
8-8
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
3
0
3
9
Packers
0
7
7
3
17
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
192
432
Total Plays
46
60
Yards / Play
4.2
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.14
Passing Yards
117
308
Comp/Att
11/16(69%)
27/32(84%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
9.6
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.47
Rushing Yards
75
124
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
27%
70%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.23
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-31
-8
Sack EPA
-7.82
-1.81
Penalties
1
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+46
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+25.3
Base HFA
+46.1
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.2
Home QB Adjustment
+23.2
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
+13.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+23.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
13
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
23
26
Rushing Yards / Game
2
28
EPA
EPA / Play
23
25
EPA / Pass
25
23
EPA / Rush
3
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
30
Interceptions / Game
22
28
Fumbles / Game
16
12
Turnover EPA / Game
10
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
28
4th Down Efficiency
16
5
RZ Efficiency
14
13
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
19
Yards / Game
10
12
Passing Yards / Game
25
9
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1
EPA
EPA / Play
5
8
EPA / Pass
2
18
EPA / Rush
14
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
7
Interceptions / Game
14
1
Fumbles / Game
5
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
29
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
17
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
6-4
SU
7-1-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U