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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ panthers week 5, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
3-1
23
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
81°F
2 mph
6
CARPanthers
0-4
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
81°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
17
0
0
6
23
Panthers
3
0
3
0
6

Spread

CHI logo
+3

Total

UNDER
33

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
247
147
Total Plays
64
62
Yards / Play
3.9
2.4
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.53
Passing Yards
29
62
Comp/Att
8/19(42%)
14/32(44%)
Yards / Pass
1.5
1.9
EPA / Pass
-1.11
-0.80
Rushing Yards
218
85
Rush Attempts
42
25
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
13
8
Passing 1st downs
2
4
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
20%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
4
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.06
-9.44
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-22
-34
Sack EPA
-5.51
-6.83
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
45
53
Penalty EPA
-4.76
-6.84

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,413
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+81.5
Home QB Adjustment
+22.9
Away QB Adjustment
-58.6
Market Regression
+45.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

T. Collins headshot

T. Collins

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-58.6
Value
Ptile
12/16
-5.6
15
12/23
6.7
88
12/30
2.5
67
01/05
-1.3
40
J. Clausen headshot

J. Clausen

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
+22.9
Value
Ptile
09/26
-4.2
22
10/03
-3.1
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Panthers Defense
Bears logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
25
Yards / Game
29
17
Passing Yards / Game
11
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23

EPA

EPA / Play
26
17
EPA / Pass
29
12
EPA / Rush
12
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
30
11
Fumbles / Game
8
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
14
4th Down Efficiency
28
12
RZ Efficiency
23
10
Panthers Offense vs Bears Defense
Panthers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
32
4
Yards / Game
32
10
Passing Yards / Game
30
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2

EPA

EPA / Play
32
1
EPA / Pass
32
5
EPA / Rush
32
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
1
Interceptions / Game
27
5
Fumbles / Game
30
7
Turnover EPA / Game
4
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
2
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
32
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-26
L
L
U
12/06
8
W
L
U
12/13
-7
L
L
U
12/20
-24
L
L
U
12/28
6
W
W
O
01/03
14
W
W
O
09/12
5
W
L
U
09/19
7
W
W
O
09/27
3
W
W
U
10/03
-14
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-11
L
L
U
12/06
10
W
W
U
12/13
-10
L
W
U
12/20
19
W
W
U
12/27
32
W
W
O
01/03
13
W
W
U
09/12
-13
L
L
O
09/19
-13
L
L
U
09/26
-13
L
L
U
10/03
-2
L
W
U