CHIBears
3-1
23
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
81°F
2 mph
6
CARPanthers
0-4
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
81°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
17
0
0
6
23
Panthers
3
0
3
0
6
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
33
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
247
147
Total Plays
64
62
Yards / Play
3.9
2.4
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.53
Passing Yards
29
62
Comp/Att
8/19(42%)
14/32(44%)
Yards / Pass
1.5
1.9
EPA / Pass
-1.11
-0.80
Rushing Yards
218
85
Rush Attempts
42
25
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
8
Passing 1st downs
2
4
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
20%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
4
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.06
-9.44
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-22
-34
Sack EPA
-5.51
-6.83
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
45
53
Penalty EPA
-4.76
-6.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,410
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+81.5
Home QB Adjustment
+22.9
Away QB Adjustment
-58.6
Market Regression
+46.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Collins
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-58.6
J. Clausen
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
+22.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
25
Yards / Game
29
17
Passing Yards / Game
11
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23
EPA
EPA / Play
26
17
EPA / Pass
29
12
EPA / Rush
12
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
30
11
Fumbles / Game
8
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
14
4th Down Efficiency
28
12
RZ Efficiency
23
10
Panthers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
4
Yards / Game
32
10
Passing Yards / Game
30
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2
EPA
EPA / Play
32
1
EPA / Pass
32
5
EPA / Rush
32
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
1
Interceptions / Game
27
5
Fumbles / Game
30
7
Turnover EPA / Game
4
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
2
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
32
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Panthers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U