CHIBears
3-1
21
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
59°F
15 mph
24
OAKRaiders
2-2
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
59°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
21
0
21
Raiders
0
17
0
7
24
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
236
398
Total Plays
51
71
Yards / Play
4.6
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.05
Passing Yards
194
--
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
25/32(78%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.05
Rushing Yards
42
169
Rush Attempts
17
39
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
25
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.82
-11.40
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-37
--
Sack EPA
-3.87
--
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
75
69
Penalty EPA
-6.63
-8.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model62.4%
Spread Pick
Raiders+6.5
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-31
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,574
Home Field
-19.9
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-19.9
Net QB Adjustment
+121.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-119.7
Market Regression
-1.9
Final Difference
-87.9
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
W. Daniel
Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-119.7
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
24
Yards / Game
29
19
Passing Yards / Game
18
16
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6
EPA
EPA / Play
28
31
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
29
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
27
Interceptions / Game
16
29
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
26
4th Down Efficiency
29
32
RZ Efficiency
24
31
Raiders Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
4
Yards / Game
12
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
11
Rushing Yards / Game
13
9
EPA
EPA / Play
14
6
EPA / Pass
6
11
EPA / Rush
21
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
12
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
6
4th Down Efficiency
7
23
RZ Efficiency
22
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U