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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ raiders week 5, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CHI logo
CHIBears
3-1
21
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
59°F
15 mph
24
OAKRaiders
2-2
OAK logo
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
59°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
21
0
21
Raiders
0
17
0
7
24

Spread

OAK logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
236
398
Total Plays
51
71
Yards / Play
4.6
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.05
Passing Yards
194
--
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
25/32(78%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.05
Rushing Yards
42
169
Rush Attempts
17
39
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
15
25
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.82
-11.40
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-37
--
Sack EPA
-3.87
--
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
75
69
Penalty EPA
-6.63
-8.19

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model62.2%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-28
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
-19.9
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-19.9
Net QB Adjustment
+121.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-119.7
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
-86.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

W. Daniel headshot

W. Daniel

Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-119.7
Value
Ptile
12/29
3.6
74
12/28
-6.5
13
11/22
-0.2
44
12/02
-5.4
16
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
11/25
-4.7
19
12/02
5.9
84
12/09
3.4
71
12/16
-4.7
19
12/24
-1.8
34
12/30
-6.8
10
09/09
5.1
84
09/15
-5.5
17
09/22
0.5
55
09/29
0.5
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Raiders Defense
Bears logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
29
24
Yards / Game
29
19
Passing Yards / Game
18
16
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6

EPA

EPA / Play
28
31
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
29
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
27
Interceptions / Game
16
29
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
26
4th Down Efficiency
29
32
RZ Efficiency
24
31
Raiders Offense vs Bears Defense
Raiders logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
24
4
Yards / Game
12
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
11
Rushing Yards / Game
13
9

EPA

EPA / Play
14
6
EPA / Pass
6
11
EPA / Rush
21
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
12
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
6
4th Down Efficiency
7
23
RZ Efficiency
22
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
-3
L
L
O
12/09
9
W
W
U
12/16
7
W
W
U
12/23
5
W
W
U
12/30
14
W
W
U
01/06
-1
L
L
U
09/05
-7
L
L
U
09/15
2
W
L
U
09/23
16
W
W
O
09/29
10
W
W
U
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-17
L
L
O
12/02
-7
L
W
O
12/09
3
W
W
U
12/16
-14
L
L
P
12/24
13
W
W
U
12/30
-32
L
L
U
09/09
8
W
W
U
09/15
-18
L
L
U
09/22
-20
L
L
O
09/29
7
W
W
O