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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ raiders week 12, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
7-3
20
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
59°F
6 mph
25
OAKRaiders
6-4
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
59°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
0
13
20
Raiders
6
6
6
7
25

Spread

OAK logo
-3

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
401
341
Total Plays
67
68
Yards / Play
6.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.01
Passing Yards
229
268
Comp/Att
18/36(50%)
21/37(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.37
-0.06
Rushing Yards
172
73
Rush Attempts
27
27
Yards / Rush
6.4
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
43%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-16.15
-1.65
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-25
-33
Sack EPA
-5.73
-5.64
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
61
44
Penalty EPA
-11.26
-4.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+99
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+125.4
Home QB Adjustment
+23.7
Away QB Adjustment
-101.8
Market Regression
+17.5
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Hanie headshot

C. Hanie

Proj. Value
-6.5
Team Elo Adj
-101.8
No recent game data available
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+23.7
Value
Ptile
11/21
0.0
49
11/25
-9.2
5
12/05
1.6
58
12/12
-7.0
10
12/19
-0.1
49
12/26
10.8
98
01/02
3.8
75
11/06
-2.4
34
11/10
2.8
71
11/20
-1.2
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Raiders Defense
Bears logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
17
29
Yards / Game
25
29
Passing Yards / Game
30
16
Rushing Yards / Game
9
27

EPA

EPA / Play
24
30
EPA / Pass
30
25
EPA / Rush
19
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
30
Interceptions / Game
25
10
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
8
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
25
4th Down Efficiency
30
5
RZ Efficiency
12
23
Raiders Offense vs Bears Defense
Raiders logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
9
17
Passing Yards / Game
26
22
Rushing Yards / Game
6
5

EPA

EPA / Play
10
4
EPA / Pass
13
9
EPA / Rush
8
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
5
Interceptions / Game
27
5
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
14
RZ Efficiency
23
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
18
W
W
O
09/18
-17
L
L
U
09/25
-10
L
L
U
10/02
5
W
L
O
10/10
-11
L
L
U
10/16
29
W
W
O
10/23
6
W
W
U
11/07
6
W
W
O
11/13
24
W
W
O
11/20
11
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
3
W
W
O
09/18
-3
L
W
O
09/25
10
W
W
O
10/02
-12
L
L
U
10/09
5
W
W
U
10/16
7
W
W
U
10/23
-28
L
L
U
11/06
-14
L
L
O
11/10
7
W
W
U
11/20
6
W
W
O