CHIBears
4-5
7
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
79°F
017
LARRams
5-4
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
79°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
7
0
7
Rams
0
10
0
7
17
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
283
Total Plays
74
52
Yards / Play
3.6
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.31
-0.24
Passing Yards
193
--
Comp/Att
25/47(53%)
11/18(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.29
Rushing Yards
74
110
Rush Attempts
24
34
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.45
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
13
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
35%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.97
-9.39
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-3.04
--
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
34
Penalty EPA
--
-6.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+180
Home nfelo
1,618
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+67.6
Base HFA
+49.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+17.8
Net QB Adjustment
+9.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
-15.1
Market Regression
-44.3
Final Difference
141.0
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-15.1
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
17
Yards / Game
29
14
Passing Yards / Game
18
19
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18
EPA
EPA / Play
28
10
EPA / Pass
24
12
EPA / Rush
29
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
16
13
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
22
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
17
4th Down Efficiency
29
25
RZ Efficiency
24
30
Rams Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
4
Yards / Game
6
8
Passing Yards / Game
26
11
Rushing Yards / Game
26
9
EPA
EPA / Play
15
6
EPA / Pass
12
11
EPA / Rush
28
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
12
Interceptions / Game
25
25
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
8
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
6
4th Down Efficiency
31
23
RZ Efficiency
6
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Rams
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U