CHIBears
6-4
21
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
042
LARRams
4-6
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
7
0
7
21
Rams
21
3
3
9
36
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
424
408
Total Plays
74
54
Yards / Play
5.7
7.6
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.35
Passing Yards
344
150
Comp/Att
36/47(77%)
10/23(43%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.23
Rushing Yards
80
258
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
3.1
8.9
EPA / Rush
-0.40
+0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
20
Passing 1st downs
19
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
11
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
60%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-17.77
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-19
Sack EPA
-8.75
-3.17
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
84
39
Penalty EPA
-11.32
-7.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.5
Home QB Adjustment
-58.3
Away QB Adjustment
-37.8
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-37.8
K. Clemens
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-58.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
12
Yards / Game
7
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
15
9
EPA
EPA / Play
7
9
EPA / Pass
6
17
EPA / Rush
8
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
24
Interceptions / Game
12
19
Fumbles / Game
17
1
Turnover EPA / Game
11
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
16
4th Down Efficiency
8
22
RZ Efficiency
7
10
Rams Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
30
Yards / Game
30
29
Passing Yards / Game
31
13
Rushing Yards / Game
19
32
EPA
EPA / Play
22
31
EPA / Pass
23
16
EPA / Rush
27
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
30
Interceptions / Game
8
7
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
17
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
25
4th Down Efficiency
27
30
RZ Efficiency
26
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
6-4
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Rams
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U