CHIBears
4-2
16
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
60°F
2 mph
30
BALRavens
1-5
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
60°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
6
0
0
10
16
Ravens
0
10
6
14
30
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
355
Total Plays
62
59
Yards / Play
6.0
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.31
Passing Yards
276
178
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
17/22(77%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.24
Rushing Yards
96
177
Rush Attempts
23
35
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
46%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.29
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-8
Sack EPA
-1.51
-2.25
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
79
45
Penalty EPA
-9.95
-4.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model55.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+8
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+60.4
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
-110.8
Home QB Adjustment
-108.7
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
-42.6
Final Difference
35.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
T. Huntley
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-108.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
23
Yards / Game
4
26
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
2
20
EPA
EPA / Play
15
19
EPA / Pass
11
19
EPA / Rush
7
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
8
Interceptions / Game
6
17
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
32
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
10
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
22
15
Ravens Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
26
Yards / Game
21
27
Passing Yards / Game
16
9
Rushing Yards / Game
4
25
EPA
EPA / Play
14
18
EPA / Pass
21
18
EPA / Rush
6
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
26
Interceptions / Game
16
1
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
2
4th Down Efficiency
26
11
RZ Efficiency
28
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U