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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ ravens week 15, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
5-8
7
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
32°F
19 mph
31
BALRavens
7-6
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
32°F
19 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
1
0
0
1
Ravens
14
0
17
0
31

Spread

BAL logo
-11

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
220
346
Total Plays
64
66
Yards / Play
3.4
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.46
-0.09
Passing Yards
98
222
Comp/Att
12/32(38%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.81
+0.15
Rushing Yards
122
124
Rush Attempts
30
31
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
13
18
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
6
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-22.80
-4.07
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-4
-22
Sack EPA
-2.38
-3.49
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
26
Penalty EPA
--
+5.54

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+236
Home nfelo
1,611
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+10.5
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
-11.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-11.8
Value
Ptile
10/04
1.2
57
10/18
3.0
69
10/25
-2.2
37
11/01
-4.3
23
11/08
4.9
81
11/12
-7.3
9
11/22
-1.3
42
11/29
-4.4
22
12/06
-3.6
27
12/13
-1.4
40
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Value
Ptile
10/04
0.7
55
10/11
-2.3
36
10/18
7.0
89
11/01
2.0
63
11/08
-8.7
6
11/16
-2.8
32
11/22
0.9
55
11/29
0.8
55
12/07
-9.9
3
12/13
1.4
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Ravens Defense
Bears logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
19
2
Yards / Game
23
2
Passing Yards / Game
11
14
Rushing Yards / Game
29
3

EPA

EPA / Play
24
4
EPA / Pass
23
3
EPA / Rush
21
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
17
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
3
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
10
RZ Efficiency
25
7
Ravens Offense vs Bears Defense
Ravens logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
11
21
Yards / Game
14
17
Passing Yards / Game
19
19
Rushing Yards / Game
4
24

EPA

EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
14
20
EPA / Rush
4
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
14
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
27
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
27
4th Down Efficiency
24
11
RZ Efficiency
15
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
24
W
W
O
10/18
-7
L
L
U
10/25
-35
L
L
O
11/01
24
W
W
U
11/08
-20
L
L
O
11/12
-4
L
L
U
11/22
-4
L
L
U
11/29
-26
L
L
U
12/06
8
W
L
U
12/13
-7
L
L
U
BAL logo

Ravens

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-6
L
L
O
10/11
-3
L
L
U
10/18
-2
L
W
O
11/01
23
W
W
U
11/08
-10
L
L
U
11/16
16
W
W
U
11/22
-2
L
L
U
11/29
3
W
L
O
12/07
-13
L
L
U
12/13
45
W
W
O