CHIBears
5-8
7
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
32°F
19 mph
31
BALRavens
7-6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
32°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
1
0
0
1
Ravens
14
0
17
0
31
Spread
-11
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
220
346
Total Plays
64
66
Yards / Play
3.4
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.46
-0.09
Passing Yards
98
222
Comp/Att
12/32(38%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.81
+0.15
Rushing Yards
122
124
Rush Attempts
30
31
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
18
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
6
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-22.80
-4.07
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-4
-22
Sack EPA
-2.38
-3.49
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
26
Penalty EPA
--
+5.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+236
Home nfelo
1,611
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+10.5
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
-11.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-11.8
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
2
Yards / Game
23
2
Passing Yards / Game
11
14
Rushing Yards / Game
29
3
EPA
EPA / Play
24
4
EPA / Pass
23
3
EPA / Rush
21
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
17
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
3
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
10
RZ Efficiency
25
7
Ravens Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
21
Yards / Game
14
17
Passing Yards / Game
19
19
Rushing Yards / Game
4
24
EPA
EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
14
20
EPA / Rush
4
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
14
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
27
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
27
4th Down Efficiency
24
11
RZ Efficiency
15
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Ravens
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U