CHIBears
1-0
13
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
030
NOSaints
0-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
3
3
0
13
Saints
3
13
7
7
30
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
246
382
Total Plays
63
67
Yards / Play
3.9
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.02
Passing Yards
186
264
Comp/Att
19/45(42%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.25
Rushing Yards
60
118
Rush Attempts
12
29
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
17%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.94
-3.53
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-58
-6
Sack EPA
-13.16
-1.62
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
--
41
Penalty EPA
--
-5.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+120
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.5
Home QB Adjustment
+16.3
Away QB Adjustment
-1.1
Market Regression
-24.5
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
18
Yards / Game
25
26
Passing Yards / Game
30
18
Rushing Yards / Game
9
11
EPA
EPA / Play
24
19
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
19
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
29
Interceptions / Game
25
27
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
8
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
6
4th Down Efficiency
30
4
RZ Efficiency
12
30
Saints Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
1
17
Passing Yards / Game
6
22
Rushing Yards / Game
7
5
EPA
EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
2
9
EPA / Rush
5
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
5
Interceptions / Game
16
5
Fumbles / Game
12
18
Turnover EPA / Game
17
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
9
4th Down Efficiency
14
14
RZ Efficiency
6
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U