CHIBears
3-5
27
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
55°F
7 mph
29
PITSteelers
4-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
55°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
3
21
27
Steelers
7
7
6
9
29
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
414
280
Total Plays
58
66
Yards / Play
7.1
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.11
Passing Yards
278
175
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
21/30(70%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.13
Rushing Yards
136
105
Rush Attempts
26
32
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
33%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-0.87
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-13
-30
Sack EPA
-4.16
-2.33
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
115
30
Penalty EPA
-11.69
-3.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+33.3
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+22.3
Home QB Adjustment
-9.4
Away QB Adjustment
-31.6
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-31.6
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
22
Yards / Game
24
27
Passing Yards / Game
21
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
32
EPA
EPA / Play
27
14
EPA / Pass
30
18
EPA / Rush
18
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
17
Interceptions / Game
29
16
Fumbles / Game
20
6
Turnover EPA / Game
4
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
12
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
30
11
Steelers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
21
Yards / Game
23
5
Passing Yards / Game
14
6
Rushing Yards / Game
30
22
EPA
EPA / Play
24
16
EPA / Pass
26
20
EPA / Rush
19
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
6
29
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
11
RZ Efficiency
21
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U