CHIBears
1-0
13
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
019
HOUTexans
1-0
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
7
0
3
13
Texans
3
13
0
3
19
Spread
6
P
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
205
310
Total Plays
66
61
Yards / Play
3.1
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.08
Passing Yards
134
235
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.58
+0.04
Rushing Yards
71
75
Rush Attempts
22
22
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.55
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
15
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
35%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.23
-5.59
Sacks
7
3
Sack Yards
-40
-25
Sack EPA
-11.65
-5.35
Penalties
9
12
Penalty Yards
60
115
Penalty EPA
-7.52
-13.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+63.1
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+28.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.1
Away QB Adjustment
-18.3
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.3
Value
Ptile
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
10
Yards / Game
32
2
Passing Yards / Game
20
11
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9
EPA
EPA / Play
27
6
EPA / Pass
26
3
EPA / Rush
20
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
3
Interceptions / Game
6
2
Fumbles / Game
13
17
Turnover EPA / Game
24
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
3
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
9
21
Texans Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
17
27
Passing Yards / Game
11
29
Rushing Yards / Game
13
27
EPA
EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
22
10
EPA / Rush
26
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
1
Interceptions / Game
16
18
Fumbles / Game
16
3
Turnover EPA / Game
21
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
5
RZ Efficiency
28
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
6-4
SU
7-1-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U