CHIBears
3-8
12
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
010
MINVikings
6-5
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
3
6
12
Vikings
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
242
Total Plays
68
51
Yards / Play
4.7
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.41
Passing Yards
199
169
Comp/Att
27/37(73%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.74
Rushing Yards
118
73
Rush Attempts
28
17
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
15
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
44%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
9
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.58
-15.30
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-16
Sack EPA
-8.50
-3.50
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
76
24
Penalty EPA
-3.11
-3.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,424
Home Field
+40.0
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-51.7
Home QB Adjustment
-51.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
R. Dobbs
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-51.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
12
Yards / Game
21
16
Passing Yards / Game
23
28
Rushing Yards / Game
2
6
EPA
EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
25
21
EPA / Rush
3
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
10
Interceptions / Game
22
19
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
10
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
14
14
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
19
Yards / Game
11
12
Passing Yards / Game
2
9
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1
EPA
EPA / Play
21
8
EPA / Pass
17
18
EPA / Rush
17
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
7
Interceptions / Game
29
1
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
5
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
29
4th Down Efficiency
8
4
RZ Efficiency
29
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
4-4-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U