CHIBears
6-5
20
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
023
MINVikings
2-8
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bears
3
3
14
0
0
20
Vikings
0
7
3
10
3
23
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
480
496
Total Plays
65
86
Yards / Play
7.4
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.02
Passing Yards
345
250
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.15
Rushing Yards
135
246
Rush Attempts
25
40
Yards / Rush
5.4
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
28
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
13
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
18%
24%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
0%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.59
-7.47
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-10
-33
Sack EPA
-5.21
-9.40
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
51
60
Penalty EPA
-8.44
-11.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+13
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.6
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-22.9
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-22.9
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
32
Yards / Game
7
31
Passing Yards / Game
7
32
Rushing Yards / Game
15
16
EPA
EPA / Play
7
29
EPA / Pass
6
29
EPA / Rush
8
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
11
Interceptions / Game
12
25
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
11
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
30
4th Down Efficiency
8
25
RZ Efficiency
7
26
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
30
Yards / Game
15
29
Passing Yards / Game
21
13
Rushing Yards / Game
9
32
EPA
EPA / Play
15
31
EPA / Pass
27
16
EPA / Rush
1
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
30
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
8
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
25
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
17
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Vikings
2-7-1
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U