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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ vikings week 14, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Win total projections and results

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CHI logo
CHIBears
8-4
14
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0
21
MINVikings
6-6
MIN logo
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
0
7
14
Vikings
14
0
1
0
15

Spread

MIN logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
438
248
Total Plays
73
56
Yards / Play
6.0
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.07
Passing Yards
320
77
Comp/Att
28/53(53%)
11/17(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.08
Rushing Yards
118
171
Rush Attempts
18
38
Yards / Rush
6.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
16
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
41%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-13.99
-1.33
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-4
-14
Sack EPA
-0.85
-2.27
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
80
54
Penalty EPA
-7.26
-7.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-80
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.2
Home QB Adjustment
-4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+16.6
Market Regression
+4.0
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
Value
Ptile
09/13
-17.7
0
09/23
-4.6
20
10/01
4.2
75
10/07
3.1
70
10/22
-5.1
18
10/28
-6.7
10
11/04
3.0
70
11/11
-5.0
19
11/25
-0.7
45
12/02
6.8
89
C. Ponder headshot

C. Ponder

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
Value
Ptile
09/23
6.9
90
09/30
-5.3
17
10/07
2.7
67
10/14
0.5
53
10/21
-9.4
3
10/25
-4.1
24
11/04
-9.3
3
11/11
3.8
74
11/25
-4.1
24
12/02
-4.4
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Bears logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
15
16
Yards / Game
28
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
10

EPA

EPA / Play
24
15
EPA / Pass
26
24
EPA / Rush
18
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
21
Interceptions / Game
18
29
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
22
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
24
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Vikings logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
17
2
Yards / Game
20
5
Passing Yards / Game
30
24
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7

EPA

EPA / Play
14
1
EPA / Pass
22
1
EPA / Rush
4
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
8
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
21
1
Turnover EPA / Game
20
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
17
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
17
W
W
U
10/01
16
W
W
O
10/07
38
W
W
O
10/22
6
W
L
U
10/28
1
W
L
O
11/04
31
W
W
O
11/11
-7
L
L
U
11/19
-25
L
L
O
11/25
18
W
W
U
12/02
-6
L
L
O
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
11
W
W
U
09/30
7
W
W
U
10/07
23
W
W
U
10/14
-12
L
L
O
10/21
7
W
P
U
10/25
-19
L
L
O
11/04
-10
L
L
O
11/11
10
W
W
O
11/25
-18
L
L
U
12/02
-9
L
L
U