CHIBears
8-4
14
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
021
MINVikings
6-6
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
0
7
14
Vikings
14
0
1
0
15
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
438
248
Total Plays
73
56
Yards / Play
6.0
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.07
Passing Yards
320
77
Comp/Att
28/53(53%)
11/17(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.08
Rushing Yards
118
171
Rush Attempts
18
38
Yards / Rush
6.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
16
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
41%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-13.99
-1.33
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-4
-14
Sack EPA
-0.85
-2.27
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
80
54
Penalty EPA
-7.26
-7.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-81
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,555
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.2
Home QB Adjustment
-4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+16.6
Market Regression
+4.3
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
16
Yards / Game
28
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
10
EPA
EPA / Play
24
15
EPA / Pass
26
24
EPA / Rush
18
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
21
Interceptions / Game
18
29
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
22
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
24
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
2
Yards / Game
20
5
Passing Yards / Game
30
24
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7
EPA
EPA / Play
14
1
EPA / Pass
22
1
EPA / Rush
4
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
8
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
21
1
Turnover EPA / Game
20
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
17
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U