CHIBears
9-4
40
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
23°F
17 mph
14
MINVikings
5-8
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
23°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
10
7
14
3
34
Vikings
7
0
7
0
14
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
34
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
293
273
Total Plays
58
61
Yards / Play
5.1
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.44
Passing Yards
189
159
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.73
Rushing Yards
104
114
Rush Attempts
33
24
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
20%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-3.66
-24.84
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-5
-33
Sack EPA
-1.49
-7.37
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
72
55
Penalty EPA
-6.18
-5.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model58.2%
Spread Pick
Vikings+5.5
Expected Value
+16.1%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.0
Home QB Adjustment
-20.7
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
+97.3
Final Difference
-57.6
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-20.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
18
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
11
6
Rushing Yards / Game
19
9
EPA
EPA / Play
26
9
EPA / Pass
29
10
EPA / Rush
12
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
15
Interceptions / Game
30
17
Fumbles / Game
8
22
Turnover EPA / Game
7
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
24
4th Down Efficiency
28
19
RZ Efficiency
23
23
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
4
Yards / Game
23
10
Passing Yards / Game
12
3
Rushing Yards / Game
10
2
EPA
EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
14
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
1
Interceptions / Game
32
5
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
2
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
15
17
RZ Efficiency
30
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U